Berjaya May See Permanent Erosion In Starbucks Brand Equity
Berjaya May See Permanent Erosion In Starbucks Brand Equity
Berjaya Food's sales may continue to be depressed until geopolitical tensions ease says Maybank Investment Bank after the group posted a rather dismal earnings report.
马来亚银行投资银行表示，在该集团发布较差的盈利报告后， berjaya Food的销售可能会持续低迷，直到地缘政治紧张局势缓解。
Thee broking house added that the growing popularity in other coffee chains may also signal a permanent erosion in Berjaya Starbucks' brand equity. The house projected FY25E net loss is lifted to -MYR65m and FY26E-FY27E earnings estimates are lowered by 13%-15%. Maintain SELL with a lower TP of MYR0.25 (-5sen) based on an unchanged 1.3x CY25E PBV (-1SD to mean).
该券商还指出，其他咖啡连锁店日益增长的受欢迎程度可能也意味着berjaya星巴克的品牌价值将永远受到侵蚀。该券商预测2025财年的净亏损将增至-6500万马币，2026财年至2027财年的盈利预计下调13%-15%。维持卖出评级，目标价下调至0.25马币（-5仙），基于2025财年1.3倍的账面价值比率（较平均值下调1个标准差）。
1QFY25 core losses widened QoQ
BFD's 1QFY25 core net loss of MYR34m (1QFY24 core net profit: MYR20m, 4QFY24 core net loss: MYR2m) surpassed the house/consensus FY25E earnings estimates of -MYR4m/+MYR7m, respectively. Ongoing store boycott was the main cause of the earnings underperformance.
2025财年第一季度的核心亏损环比扩大。
BFD在2025财年第一季度的核心净亏损为3400万马币（2024财年第一季度核心净利润：2000万马币，2024财年第四季度核心净亏损：200万马币），超过了该券商/共识的2025财年盈利预期，分别为-400万马币/+700万马币。持续的商店抵制是盈利表现不佳的主要原因。
Operating challenges persists
The group has temporarily closed 12% of its BStarbucks stores (50 out of 408 stores) in 1QFY25, as compared to c.6% of its total store count in 4QFY24. This resulted in a -5% QoQ decline in 1QFY25's group revenue. Loss before tax of MYR32m in 1QFY25 compared to MYR6m in 4QFY24 (before sizeable positive one-offs) widened despite BFD's vigilant cost management initiatives involving lower staff count per store and rental expenses.
运营挑战仍然存在。
该集团在2025财年第一季度暂时关闭了12%的B星巴克门店（408家门店中的50家），相比于2024财年第四季度约6%的总门店数量。这导致2025财年第一季度的集团营业收入环比下降5%。2025财年第一季度的税前亏损为3200万马币，较2024财年第四季度的600万马币（在较大积极一次性收益之前）继续扩大，尽管BFD实施了提高成本管理效率的措施，包括每家门店降低员工数量和租金支出。
Revising earnings estimates down
BFD continues to face significant business challenges. Management's efforts have diverted to growing its Paris Baguette (10 stores as at end1QFY25), and BStarbucks stores outside of Malaysia. However, given that group earnings remain highly dependent on domestic BStarbucks' performance, meaningful earnings diversification will be slow. Moreover, heightened competition within the industry also adds another roadblock to BFD's earnings recovery. Hence, we raise our FY25E loss estimate to – MYR65m (vs. -MYR4m previously), and FY26E/FY27E earnings estimates are lowered by -15%/-13%.
下调盈利预期。
BFD继续面临重大业务挑战。管理层的努力转向了扩展其巴黎面包店（截至FY25第一季度开设了10家）和马来西亚以外的星巴克店。然而，鉴于集团的收益仍高度依赖于国内星巴克的表现，业绩的有效多元化将会缓慢。此外，行业内竞争加剧也给BFD的收益恢复增加了另一个障碍。因此，我们将FY25E的亏损预估上调至-6500万马币（之前为-400万马币），FY26E/FY27E的收益预估下调了-15%/-13%。
