Alta Equipment Group Inc. (NYSE:ALTG) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$449m missing analyst predictions by 6.5%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.86 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Alta Equipment Group's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.94b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 41% to US$1.01. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.98b and losses of US$0.70 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Alta Equipment Group after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The consensus price target fell 18% to US$12.70, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Alta Equipment Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alta Equipment Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alta Equipment Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alta Equipment Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Alta Equipment Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Alta Equipment Group has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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