There's been a major selloff in OptiNose, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPTN) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 42% to US$0.46. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in 11% below what the analysts had expected, at US$20m. The company broke even in terms of statutory earnings per share (EPS). The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the four analysts covering OptiNose are now predicting revenues of US$126.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 67% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 47% to US$0.11. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$129.0m and US$0.083 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 6.7% to US$3.50, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values OptiNose at US$5.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that OptiNose's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 50% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 15% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that OptiNose is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded OptiNose's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for OptiNose going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for OptiNose (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.