2.1% Earnings Growth Over 3 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for China Resources Beer (Holdings) (HKG:291) Shareholders Over That Period
2.1% Earnings Growth Over 3 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for China Resources Beer (Holdings) (HKG:291) Shareholders Over That Period
While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (HKG:291) share price up 14% in a single quarter. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. Regrettably, the share price slid 58% in that period. So it's good to see it climbing back up. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.
虽然这对于一些股东来说可能不够,但我们认为中国资源啤酒(控股)有限公司(HKG:291)在一个季度内股价上涨14%是值得高兴的。 但对于三年来令人恼火的回报来说,这是微不足道的补偿。 不幸的是,股价在此期间下滑了58%。 所以看到它回升是件好事。 尽管许多人仍然感到紧张,但如果业务能够尽全力表现,还有可能获得进一步的收益。
After losing 13% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
在过去的一周里,该公司的基本面表现不佳,有必要探究过去的业绩来做出推论。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
引用巴菲特的话,“船只会在世界各地航行,但扁平地球协会将空前盛行。市场上的价格和价值将继续存在巨大差异… ”检查市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是查看公司的股价与每股收益(EPS)之间的互动。
Although the share price is down over three years, China Resources Beer (Holdings) actually managed to grow EPS by 6.6% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
尽管股价在三年中下跌,中国资源啤酒(控股)实际上在此期间每年成功地实现了6.6%的每股收益增长。这相当令人困惑,暗示可能有一些因素暂时支撑着股价。 或者说,公司在过去被过度宣传,因此其增长让人失望。
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
值得关注其他指标,因为EPS增长似乎与股价下跌不符。
Revenue is actually up 6.2% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching China Resources Beer (Holdings) more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
营业收入在三年内实际上增长了6.2%,因此股价下跌似乎与营业收入无关。这项分析只是表面上的,不过更深入地研究一下中国资源啤酒(控股)可能是值得的,因为有时股票会不公平地下跌。这可能会带来机会。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下面的图表显示了收益和营收随时间的变化情况(通过单击图像揭示确切的值)。
China Resources Beer (Holdings) is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think China Resources Beer (Holdings) will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
中国资源啤酒(控股)是一只知名的股票,有很多分析师在关注,这表明对未来增长有一定的可见度。因此,了解分析师对中国资源啤酒(控股)未来盈利的看法(免费分析师共识估计)是非常有意义的。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Resources Beer (Holdings)'s TSR for the last 3 years was -55%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报是很重要的。总股东回报(TSR)是考虑现金分红价值的回报计算(假设任何收到的分红都被再投资)以及任何折价融资和分拆的计算价值。可以公平地说,TSR为支付分红的股票提供了更完整的视图。实际上,中国资源啤酒(控股)在过去三年的TSR为-55%,这超过了前面提到的股价回报。可以猜测,分红支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异!
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
While the broader market gained around 15% in the last year, China Resources Beer (Holdings) shareholders lost 27% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Is China Resources Beer (Holdings) cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.
虽然大盘在过去一年上涨了约15%,但中国资源啤酒(控股)股东损失了27%(即使包括分红派息)。即使是好的股票,有时股价也会下跌,但我们希望在真正感兴趣之前,看到业务的基本指标有所改善。令人遗憾的是,去年的表现为一场糟糕的运行画上句号,股东在过去五年面临了每年总损失6%的局面。我们意识到巴伦·罗斯柴尔德曾说投资者应该在“街上流血”时买入,但我们提醒投资者首先要确保他们购买的是高质量的业务。中国资源啤酒(控股)相对于其他公司是否便宜?这3个估值指标可能有助于你做出决定。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
对于那些喜欢寻找获胜投资的人来说,最近有内部购买的低估公司免费列表可能是一个很好的选择。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引述的市场回报率反映了目前在香港交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报率。
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