Gain For MISC With Bumi Armada Synergy
Gain For MISC With Bumi Armada Synergy
As such, assuming the merger is completed, CGS expects MISC to place out shares in ME to ensure adequate free float. A 10% placement by MISC may raise RM1.97bn for MISC (assuming a valuation of RM19.7bn for ME), equivalent to 22% of the RM9.1bn that MISC had spent on building the FPSO Mero-3. In this way, CGS believes that MISC can indirectly achieve its goal of paring down its stake in Mero-3, since its efforts to find trade buyers for the Mero-3 have so far not been successful, according to the company.
News broke in Jul 2024 that MISC may take a substantial stake in Bumi Armada Berhad, obliquely implying that Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd (OBSB, ultimately owned by tycoon Ananda Krishan) that holds a 34.6% stake in BAB could be looking to exit the company.
2024年7月有消息传出，MISC可能收购Bumi Armada Berhad的大量股份，这含糊地暗示持有Bab34.6％股份的Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd（ObsB，最终由大亨阿南达·克里山拥有）可能正在寻求退出该公司。
MISC's share price subsequently corrected 16% from RM8.90 on 3 Jul 2024 to a recent low of RM7.46 on 25 Oct 2024, as shareholders feared the implications of MISC possibly having to expend a lot of its cash on a mandatory general offer (MGO). We think that this worst-case scenario is now unlikely to be true, as MISC and BAB announced to Bursa on 14 Nov 2024 that both parties have signed an MOU and will over the next nine months explore a merger of MISC's Offshore Business Unit (OBU) with BAB in an all-share transaction. CGS Investment Bank theorises that MISC may inject its OBU into BAB in exchange for new BAB shares. The house's target price for BAB implies a RM4.7bn valuation (in contrast to its market cap of RM3bn), while it also values MISC's offshore business at RM15bn.
MISC的股价随后从2024年7月3日的8.90令吉修正了16％，至2024年10月25日的7.46令吉的最近低点，原因是股东们担心MISC可能不得不将大量现金花在强制性全面收购要约（MGO）上的影响。我们认为，这种最坏的情况现在不太可能成真，因为MISC和Bab于2024年11月14日向Bursa宣布，双方已经签署了谅解备忘录，并将在未来九个月内探索将MISC的离岸业务部门（OBU）与Bab进行全股交易的合并。CGS投资银行认为，MISC可能会将其OBU注入BaB，以换取新的Bab股票。该公司的BaB目标价格意味着估值为47亿令吉（相比之下，其市值为30亿令吉），同时它还对MISC的离岸业务估值为150亿令吉。
Combining the two entities at these valuations, MISC will end up with a 76% stake in the merged entity ('ME'), while OBSB's stake in ME may be diluted to 8.3%. MISC may be obliged to execute an MGO for BAB, according to the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers 2016, but if OBSB publicly announces that it does not intend to accept the MGO, there is a chance that MISC may not cross the compulsory acquisition threshold of 90%, which fits in well with the stated intention of both MISC and BAB to keep ME listed.
按这些估值合并这两个实体，MISC最终将获得合并后的实体（“我”）76％的股份，而OBSB在ME的股份可能会稀释至8.3％。根据2016年《马来西亚收购与合并守则》，MISC可能有义务为BaB执行MGO的MGO，但如果ObsB公开宣布不打算接受MGO，MISC可能不会超过90％的强制收购门槛，这与MISC和Bab都表示的保持我上市的意图非常吻合。
As such, assuming the merger is completed, CGS expects MISC to place out shares in ME to ensure adequate free float. A 10% placement by MISC may raise RM1.97bn for MISC (assuming a valuation of RM19.7bn for ME), equivalent to 22% of the RM9.1bn that MISC had spent on building the FPSO Mero-3. In this way, CGS believes that MISC can indirectly achieve its goal of paring down its stake in Mero-3, since its efforts to find trade buyers for the Mero-3 have so far not been successful, according to the company.
因此，假设合并已经完成，CGS预计MISC将发行ME的股份，以确保足够的自由流动。MISC的10％配售可能为MISC筹集19.7亿令吉（假设我的估值为197亿令吉），相当于MISC在建造FPSO Mero-3上花费的91亿令吉的22％。据该公司称，通过这种方式，CGS认为MISC可以间接实现削减其在Mero-3股份的目标，因为迄今为止，其为Mero-3寻找贸易买家的努力并未成功。
Operating synergies and prospects for MISC's growth
MISC may experience a relief rally, since an all-shares transaction will help preserve MISC's cash balances. The house thinks that a merger of two mid-sized FPSO companies can also help pool engineering resources, with cost synergies, while MISC can gain exposure to BAB's growth initiatives, including the Bluestreak carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in the UK, and the potential to monetise gas via a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) solution in Indonesia. The house reiterates Add on these potential rerating catalysts.
运营协同效应和MISC的增长前景
MISC可能会出现缓解性反弹，因为全股交易将有助于保持MISC的现金余额。该公司认为，两家中型FPSO公司的合并还有助于汇集工程资源，实现成本协同效应，而MISC可以获得BAB增长计划的曝光，包括英国的Bluestreak碳捕集和储存（CCS）项目，以及通过印度尼西亚的浮动液化天然气（FLNG）解决方案将天然气货币化的潜力。众议院重申添加这些潜在的再评级催化剂。
EGMs will need to be convened at both companies, giving minority shareholders a chance to analyse closely and vote accordingly. The key downside risks are if the valuation for MISC's OBU is lower than expected, or if BAB's valuation is higher than expected.
需要在两家公司召开临时股东大会，让少数股东有机会仔细分析并进行相应的投票。关键的下行风险是MISC的OBU的估值是否低于预期，或者BAB的估值是否高于预期。
