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Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002202) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002202) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

金风科技股份有限公司(SZSE:002202)的股价表现强劲,但基本面看起来不确定:前路将何去何从?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/17 08:55

Most readers would already be aware that Goldwind Science&Technology's (SZSE:002202) stock increased significantly by 37% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Goldwind Science&Technology's ROE today.

大多数读者可能已经意识到金风科技(SZSE:002202)的股票在过去三个月内显著上涨了37%。然而,我们想知道公司不稳定的财务状况是否会对当前股价的动能产生任何负面影响。特别是,我们将关注金风科技今天的roe。

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

roe指股东权益回报率,是一种有用的工具,用于评估公司如何有效地从股东获得的投资中产生回报。简单来说,这衡量了一家公司相对于股东权益的盈利能力。

How Is ROE Calculated?

净资产收益率怎么计算?

The formula for return on equity is:

权益回报率的计算公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

净资产收益率 = 净利润(来自持续经营) ÷ 股东权益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Goldwind Science&Technology is:

因此,根据以上公式,金风科技的roe为:

4.9% = CN¥2.0b ÷ CN¥41b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

4.9% = 人民币20亿 ÷ 人民币410亿(截至2024年9月的过去十二个月)。

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every CN¥1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CN¥0.05.

‘回报率’是每年的利润。这意味着该公司每投资CN¥1股东投资,就可以创造CN¥0.05的利润。

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

ROE为什么对净利润增长很重要?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

Goldwind Science&Technology's Earnings Growth And 4.9% ROE

金风科技的盈利增长和4.9%的roe

On the face of it, Goldwind Science&Technology's ROE is not much to talk about. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 6.4%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 14% seen by Goldwind Science&Technology over the last five years is not surprising. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

乍看之下,金风科技的roe并没有什么值得讨论的。此外,与平均行业roe 6.4%相比,公司的roe让我们感到更加不热情。考虑到情况,过去五年间金风科技净利润下降14%并不令人意外。我们认为这里也可能有其他因素在起作用。例如,公司的派息率很高,或面临竞争压力。

However, when we compared Goldwind Science&Technology's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 10% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

然而,当我们将金风科技的增长与行业进行比较时,发现公司的盈利正在减少,而同期行业的盈利增长了10%。这是相当令人担忧的。

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SZSE:002202 Past Earnings Growth November 17th 2024
SZSE:002202过去盈利增长2024年11月17日

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Goldwind Science&Technology's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

盈利增长是股票估值的一个重要因素。投资者需要判断的下一个问题是,预期的盈利增长是否已经反映在股价中,或者反之。这有助于他们判断股票的未来是光明还是黯淡。如果您想了解金风科技的估值,请看一看其市盈率,以及与行业的比较。

Is Goldwind Science&Technology Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

金风科技是否有效利用了留存收益?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 30% (that is, a retention ratio of 70%), the fact that Goldwind Science&Technology's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

尽管金风科技的三年中位数支付比率为30%(即留存比率为70%),但该公司的盈利缩水令人困惑。看起来可能有一些其他原因可以解释这种缺乏。例如,业务可能正在走下坡路。

In addition, Goldwind Science&Technology has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 29%. Regardless, the future ROE for Goldwind Science&Technology is predicted to rise to 7.8% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.

此外,金风科技至少在过去十年里一直在支付红利,这表明即使以牺牲业务增长为代价,维持红利支付对管理层来说更为重要。根据最新的分析师预测,我们发现公司未来三年的红利支付比率预计将稳定在29%。尽管如此,金风科技的未来roe预计将提高至7.8%,尽管预计红利支付比率不会有太大变化。

Conclusion

结论

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Goldwind Science&Technology. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

总体而言,我们对金风科技有着一些矛盾的看法。虽然该公司有着较高的再投资率,但低roe表明所有这些再投资并未给投资人带来任何好处,而且对盈利增长产生了负面影响。话虽如此,从当前的分析师预测来看,我们发现该公司的盈利增长率有望大幅提升。这些分析师的预期是基于行业的广泛预期,还是基于公司的基本面?点击这里查看我们为该公司的分析师预测页面。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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