Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Canadian Natural Resources Vs Cenovus?
Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Canadian Natural Resources Vs Cenovus?
With respective market caps of $99.7 billion and $40.9 billion, Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) and Cenvous Energy (TSX:CVE) are two of Canada's largest energy producers. Both have excellent oil sand and conventional assets, but each has drastically different results as of late.
加拿大自然资源(tsx:cnq)和cenovus能源(tsx:cve)的市值分别为997亿和409亿,是加拿大最大的两个能源生产商。两者在油砂和常规资产方面都表现出色,但最近的结果大相径庭。
This conundrum may lead investors to wonder what stock is a better buy today. Here are some thoughts.
这个难题可能会让投资者想知道今天哪只股票更适合买入。以下是一些想法。
Canadian Natural Resources: A Canadian energy legend
加拿大自然资源:加拿大能源传奇
Canadian Natural Resources has focused largely on what it is good at: producing oil and natural gas cheaply. This strategy has been very successful. Its stock is up 153% in the past five years and 133% over the past 10 years. Add in dividends and its total respective returns look like 236% and 265%.
加拿大自然资源主要专注于它擅长的领域:以低成本生产石油和天然气。这一策略非常成功。过去五年,其股票上涨了153%,过去十年上涨了133%。加上分红派息,总回报分别为236%和265%。
With 1.4 million barrels of equivalent (BOE) per day, it is Canada's largest energy producer. Canadian Natural has best-in-class production assets that it operates with factory efficiency.
以140万桶当量(BOE)每天的产量,它是加拿大最大的能源生产商。加拿大自然资源拥有业界顶尖的生产资产,并以工厂效率运营。
Canadian Natural has smartly acquired and built out a massive energy inventory. The large independent crude oil and natural gas producer has 33 years of proven energy reserves. It has the second largest energy reserve amongst all energy producers in North America.
加拿大自然资源聪明地收购并扩展了其庞大的能源库存。作为大型独立的wti原油和天然气生产商,它拥有33年的已探明能源储备。它在北美所有能源生产商中拥有第二大的能源储备。
While the company had promised 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders, it recently made a big oil sands acquisition. That will slow near-term shareholder cash returns, but it will provide attractive opportunities over the longer term.
尽管该公司承诺将100%的自由现金流分配给股东,但它最近进行了大规模的油砂收购。这将减缓近期的股东现金回报,但在长期内将提供有吸引力的机会。
Canadian Natural Resources yields 4.8% today. CNQ has consecutively increased its dividend for 25 years. It trades with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 and a price-to-free cash (P/FCF) flow of 13.8. It is not the cheapest energy stock, but it's a pretty good bargain for the quality of the assets you are owning.
加拿大自然资源目前的收益率为4.8%。cnq已连续25年增加其分红派息。它的市盈率(P/E)为13.5,自由现金流市盈率(P/FCF)为13.8。虽然它不是最便宜的能源股票,但就其资产质量而言,它还是一个相当不错的交易。
Cenovus: Cheap but maybe for a reason
cenovus: 便宜但可能有原因
Cenovus Energy is more diversified than Canadian Natural. It is an integrated operator, which means it has both upstream (production) and downstream (refining) operations.
cenovus能源的多元化程度超过了加拿大自然资源。它是一家综合运营商,这意味着它同时拥有上游(生产)和下游(炼油)业务。
Like Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus has some really high-quality production assets that span across oil sands, conventional, and offshore operations. It produces 771,300 BOE per day. Like Canadian Natural, it has over 30 years of energy reserves.
与加拿大自然资源一样,cenovus拥有一些非常高质量的生产资产,涵盖油砂、常规和离岸业务。它每天生产771,300桶油当量。与加拿大自然资源一样,它拥有超过30年的能源储备。
The thorn in Cenovus side has been its downstream portfolio. It has six refineries across North America. However, they have had no shortage of problems with everything from fires to breakdowns to weak utilization. It acquired these assets just before the pandemic, but it is still working to rightsize and optimize that business.
cenovus的痛点在于其下游投资组合。它在北美拥有六座炼油厂。然而,这些炼油厂面临着从火灾到故障再到利用率低下的各种问题。在疫情之前,它收购了这些资产,但仍在努力调整和优化该业务。
Unfortunately, that weakness has impacted results. Cenovus has delivered a 100% total return over the past five years and no total return over the past 10 years. Its stock is only up 1.5% year to date.
不幸的是,这一弱点影响了业绩。过去五年,cenovus的总回报达到100%,而过去十年的总回报为零。今年以来,它的股票只上涨了1.5%。
Now, there is no doubt the company is significantly better than it was 10 years ago. Its balance sheet is in excellent condition and management is returning 100% of its excess cash right back to shareholders. However, it has yet to prove it can make good money from refining energy.
现在,毫无疑问,该公司的状况远比10年前好。其资产负债表状况良好,管理层将100%的多余现金返还给股东。然而,它还未能证明能够从能源炼油中赚取可观利润。
Cenovus stock has a 3.3% dividend yield. It is cheaper than Canadian Natural Resources with a P/E ratio of 11 and a P/FCF ratio of 8.5.
cenovus股票的分红收益率为3.3%。其市盈率为11,市现率为8.5,比加拿大自然资源便宜。
The Foolish takeaway
愚蠢的带走
Canadian Natural Resources is by far the higher quality company of the two. If you want consistent and steady long-term returns, it is the best bet. However, that comes at a premium valuation (albeit it has a higher dividend yield).
加拿大自然资源显然是两者中质量更高的公司。如果你想要稳定且持续的长期回报,它是最佳选择。然而,这需要溢价估值(虽然它的分红派息收益率更高)。
Cenovus is cheap and aggressively buying back stock. However, it needs to get its downstream business fixed (or sold). Until that happens, it might continue to trade at a considerable discount to its premium peers like Canadian Natural.
cenovus能源便宜,并且在积极回购股票。然而,它需要修复其下游-脑机业务(或售出该业务)。在那之前,它可能会继续以显著折扣于其同类优质公司如加拿大自然资源进行交易。