Dollar Upside On The Cards Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Cautious Fed And Solid US Economic Data, Says Expert
Dollar Upside On The Cards Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Cautious Fed And Solid US Economic Data, Says Expert
"The yearly highs of 107.07 acts as a first immediate resistance for DXY, but a break of it may let it test 108.60 while 105.10 a support," added Sodhani.As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, Ukraine has launched U.K.-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia and the Kremlin has loosened its policy for using nuclear weapons. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is open to a peace deal brokered by President-elect Donald Trump.
随着中东地缘政治紧张局势升级，乌克兰向俄罗斯发射了英国制造的风暴阴影导弹，克里姆林宫放宽了使用核武器的政策。然而，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京表示，他愿意接受当选总统特朗普斡旋的和平协议。
These events combined with the strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's cautious rhetoric on the interest rate cuts, may push the U.S. Dollar to new highs, says Kunal Sodhani, vice president of the global trading center at Shinhan Bank.
这些事件结合强劲的美国经济数据以及美联储对利率削减的谨慎言辞，可能会推送美元达到新高， said Kunal Sodhani, 新汉银行全球交易中心副总裁。
What Happened: Last week, the greenback hit a fresh 52-week high at 107.07 level. The U.S. dollar has rallied more than 3% since the Nov. 5 presidential elections as "Donald Trump's policies of higher tariffs and lower taxes are potential drivers of inflation and might slow the Fed's easing cycle," said Sodhani.
发生了什么：上周，美元在107.07的水平上创下了52周的新高。自11月5日的总统选举以来，美元已经上涨超过3%，因为“特朗普概念政策的增税和减税可能是通货膨胀的驱动因素，并可能减缓美联储的放松周期，”Sodhani说。
"The yearly highs of 107.07 acts as a first immediate resistance for DXY, but a break of it may let it test 108.60 while 105.10 a support," added Sodhani.
“107.07的年度高点是DXY的第一个立即支撑位，但突破后可能会测试108.60，而105.10是压力位，”Sodhani补充道。
On Thursday, the dollar index sustained a level above 106.5, buoyed by expectations surrounding the policies of the incoming Trump administration, which could fuel inflation and therefore limit further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to Trading Economics. Sodhani sees an almost 2% upside from these levels.
周四，美元指数维持在106.5以上，受到对即将到来的特朗普政府政策的预期推动，这可能会推动通货膨胀，因此限制美联储进一步的利率削减，根据Trading Economics的说法。Sodhani认为从这些水平看有将近2%的上升空间。
Why It Matters: As per the data provided by Sodhani, the CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 59.1% chance of another 25 basis points cut by the Fed in the upcoming December 18 meeting. Whereas, there is a 40.9% chance that the rates may remain unchanged.
重要性：根据Sodhani提供的数据，cme FedWatch工具定价美联储在即将到来的12月18日会议上再次削减25个基点的可能性为59.1%。而利率保持不变的可能性为40.9%。
"While the rate-cut scenario is the most probable, traders have significantly pared back some of the rate-cut bets compared with a week ago," said Sodhani.
“虽然降息情景是最可能的，但与一周前相比，交易员已大幅削减了一些降息押注，”Sodhani说。
Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook in her speech at Charlottesville, Virginia, remained confident that the Fed will lower inflation toward its 2% goal, but she didn't reveal whether she will support a rate cut next month.
美联储董事会成员Lisa Cook在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的演讲中对美联储将通货膨胀降低到2%的目标充满信心，但她没有透露她是否会支持下个月的降息。
On the other hand, Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman, speaking at West Palm Beach, Florida added that despite seeing "considerable progress" on inflation, it seems to have "stalled in recent months," meaning the Fed should be cautious. She commented that neutral rates could not be as low as expected, by some officials at the FOMC.
另一方面，联邦储备委员会委员米歇尔·博曼在佛罗里达州西棕榈滩发表讲话时表示，尽管在通胀方面看到"相当大的进展"，但似乎在最近几个月"停滞不前"，这意味着美联储应该保持谨慎。她评论说中立利率可能无法像一些FOMC官员所预期的那样低。
What Are Other Analysts Saying: According to a Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs's outlook for the last two years predicted the U.S. currency would retreat from lofty valuations. "We now expect tariffs to feature prominently in the U.S. policy mix next year, along with some further fiscal changes." Tariffs, alongside a booming economy and rising U.S. asset prices are, "a potent combination for the (stronger) dollar," they added.
其他分析师的看法：根据彭博社的报道，高盛对过去两年的展望预测美国货币将从高估值中回落。"我们现在预计关税将在明年的美国政策组合中占据重要地位，同时还会有一些进一步的财政变化。" 关税，加上蓬勃发展的经济和上升的美国资产价格，"是（更强）美元的强大组合，"他们补充道。
