The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Allurion Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ALUR), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Allurion Technologies from its four analysts is for revenues of US$37m in 2025 which, if met, would be a modest 7.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of US$52m in 2025. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Allurion Technologies, given the pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Allurion Technologies is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.8% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 5.0% annual decline over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Allurion Technologies' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for Allurion Technologies next year. They're also anticipating slower revenue growth than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Allurion Technologies after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Allurion Technologies' business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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