Potential 'Healthy Correction' For An 'Expensive' Market Looms As US Economic Growth And Earnings Slow, Says Asset Manager: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trade Lower In Premarket
Potential 'Healthy Correction' For An 'Expensive' Market Looms As US Economic Growth And Earnings Slow, Says Asset Manager: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trade Lower In Premarket
Ahead of the potential market correction, Brian Arcese from Foord Asset Management has highlighted concerns over the U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. These factors could trigger a correction if they continue to slow down.
在潜在的市场调整之前,Foord资产管理的Brian Arcese已经提出了对美国经济增长和公司盈利的担忧。如果这些因素继续放缓,可能会引发一次调整。
What Happened: Arcese warned that a market correction could occur if U.S. GDP or earnings growth slows. Arcese noted that the S&P 500 has been "expensive for quite a while," with a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 27, CNBC reported on Friday.
发生了什么:Arcese警告称,如果美国国内生产总值或盈利增长放缓,市场可能会出现调整。Arcese指出,标普500指数已经"相当长时间"昂贵,根据CNBC周五的报道,市盈率超过27。
"We do think that a correction would be healthy, but you will need some type of catalyst for that correction to take place," he said, highlighting two potential catalysts for a correction: slowing economic growth and inflation increases.
"我们认为调整是有益的,但您需要某种催化剂来引发调整",他说道,强调了两个潜在的调整催化剂:经济增长放缓和通货膨胀增加。
U.S. GDP growth was less than anticipated in the third quarter, and inflation rose to 2.6% in October, as per recent data. He emphasized that high corporate earnings expectations, particularly outside IT and communication services, could also trigger a correction if growth slows.
美国国内生产总值增长在第三季度低于预期,通货膨胀在十月份上涨至2.6%,根据最新数据。他强调,高预期的公司盈利,特别是在It和通讯服务板块之外,如果增长放缓,也可能引发一次调整。
Arcese remarked on the unusual combination of factors like GDP growth, earnings growth, and falling inflation and interest rates, which he described as rare. He noted that while utilities are more expensive than before, they remain less costly than the broader market, with growth driven by increased electricity demand from data centers and AI advancements.
Arcese提到了诸如GDP增长、盈利增长以及通货膨胀率和利率的下降等因素的不寻常组合,他认为这是罕见的。他指出,虽然公用事业部门比以往更昂贵,但它们仍然比整体市场便宜,增长受数据中心和人工智能进展推动的电力需求增加。
Why It Matters: The concerns raised by Arcese align with recent warnings from other financial experts. David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, recently labeled the current market as "the most expensive of all time," citing the high Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.
为何重要:Arcese提出的担忧与其他金融专家最近发出的警告相一致。最近,Greenlight Capital的创始人David Einhorn称当前市场为"有史以来最昂贵的市场",他引用了高Shiller循环调整市盈率。
Similarly, Stifel's Barry Bannister predicted a 12% market drop by the end of 2024, driven by high valuations and speculative risks. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple is nearing historic highs, reminiscent of previous market peaks.
同样,Stifel的Barry Bannister预测到2024年年底市场将下跌12%,原因是高估值和投机风险。标普500指数的市盈率倍数接近历史高点,让人联想起以往市场高峰。
Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs forecasts strong U.S. economic growth in 2025, with a 2.5% GDP boost, suggesting potential resilience in the face of current market challenges.
尽管存在这些担忧,高盛预测2025年美国经济增长强劲,GDP增长率为2.5%,表明在当前市场挑战面前可能具备潜在的韧性。
Price Action: As of Friday, according to Benzinga Pro, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) that tracks the S&P 500 closely witnessed a 25.60% increase in its year-to-date (YTD) returns while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw a hike of 25.43%. However, during pre-market hours on Friday, both the ETFs were trading slightly lower.
价格走势:截至上周五,根据Benzinga Pro的数据,纽交所标普500ETF信托基金(纽交所:SPY)紧密跟踪标普500指数,年初至今收益率增长了25.60%,而纳斯达克100ETF信托基金第1系列(纳斯达克:QQQ)涨幅为25.43%。然而,在上周五盘前交易时间,两只ETF都略有下跌。
On Friday, futures show a decline across major indices: Nasdaq 100 down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.40%, Dow Jones down 0.29%, and R2K down 0.08%.
周五,期货表现下跌,主要指数如下:纳斯达克100下跌0.51%,标普500下跌0.40%,道琼斯下跌0.29%,和R0.2万下跌0.08%。
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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