Markets Misread Trump Win, Says Ex-Goldman Sachs Analyst: 'Prospects Of Tariffs Not Good For Equities'
Markets Misread Trump Win, Says Ex-Goldman Sachs Analyst: 'Prospects Of Tariffs Not Good For Equities'
As the U.S. dollar scaled a fresh 52-week high on Friday morning at 108.071 level, former Goldman Sachs FX strategist and senior fellow at Brookings Institution, Robin Brooks said in an X (formerly Twitter) post that, "Markets initially got this wrong, driving stocks up sharply right after Nov. 5."
美元在周五早晨以108.071水平创下52周新高，前高盛外汇策略师、布鲁金斯学会高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯在X（前身为Twitter）的发帖中表示：“市场最初对此误解，导致股市在11月5日后急剧上涨。”
He added that "the prospect of tariffs isn't obviously good for equities, while it's clearly good for the Dollar. More Dollar strength is coming."
他补充说：“关税的前景显然对股票不利，但显然有利于美元。更强势美元即将到来。”
The Dollar (lhs) is now clearly outperforming S&P 500 (rhs). Markets initially got this wrong, driving stocks up sharply right after Nov. 5. But the prospect of tariffs isn't obviously good for equities, while it's clearly good for the Dollar. More Dollar strength is coming... pic.twitter.com/GEZr0IaDh8
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) November 22, 2024
美元（左）目前明显表现优于标普500指数（右）。市场最初对此误解，导致股市在11月5日后急剧上涨。但是关税的前景显然不利于股票，但显然有利于美元。更强势美元即将到来... pic.twitter.com/GEZr0IaDh8
—罗宾·布鲁克斯（@robin_j_brooks）2024年11月22日
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What Happened: A chart shared by Brooks compared the S&P 500 Index and the Dollar Index during President-elect Donald Trump's victory in 2016 and 2024. Measuring the performance of both indices from the day of the election on Nov. 5, the Dollar Index has risen by approximately 3.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which advanced 2.9%.
发生了什么：布鲁克斯分享的一张图表比较了2016年和2024年当选总统的唐纳德·特朗普时，标普500指数和美元指数的情况。从11月5日选举日开始测量这两个指数的表现，美元指数上涨约3.5%，表现优于上涨2.9%的标普500指数。
Why It Matters: An increase in tariffs reduces the demand for imported goods and lifts domestic prices above the free trade price, gradually stoking inflation. This results in monetary tightening affecting the equities in the long run.
为什么重要：关税的增加会减少对进口商品的需求，并将国内价格提高到自由贸易价格之上，逐渐引起通胀。这导致货币收紧从而影响股票的长期走势。
However, higher tariffs are positive for the domestic currency as its supply decreases and more money flows into the economy.
然而，更高的关税对国内货币是积极的，因为货币供应减少并且更多资金流入经济。
What Are Other Analysts Saying: Now that the Dollar Index has surpassed its previous 52-week high of 107.07, "a break of it may let it test 108.60 while 105.10 acting as a support," said Kunal Sodhani, vice president of the global trading center at Shinhan Bank.
其他分析师的看法：现在美元指数已经突破了其上一周52周最高点107.07，“如果突破该水平，则可能会测试108.60，而105.10将充当支撑点，”信汉银行全球交易中心副总裁库纳尔·索达尼表示。
According to him, "the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East combined with the strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's cautious rhetoric on interest rate cuts, may push the U.S. Dollar to new highs"
据他说，“中东地区持续存在的地缘政治紧张局势，加上美国强劲的经济数据以及美联储在降息方面谨慎的言论，可能会推动美元创下新高”
As of Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) had gained 25.60% year-to-date, while the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw a 25.43% increase, according to Benzinga Pro. Despite these strong returns, both ETFs were slightly down in pre-market trading on Friday.
截至上周五，标普500 ETF信托基金（NYSE:SPY）今年以来涨幅25.60%，而英寸台 QQQ 信托一号（NASDAQ:QQQ）涨幅25.43%，根据彭博专业版的数据。尽管这两只 ETF 回报率强劲，但在上周五的美股盘前交易中略有下跌。
Meanwhile, the futures show a decline across major indices: Nasdaq 100 down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.40%, Dow Jones down 0.29%, and R2K down 0.08%.
与此同时，期货合约显示主要指数下跌：纳斯达克100 指数下跌0.51%，标普500 指数下跌0.40%，道琼斯指数下跌0.29%，而 R0.2万 指数下跌0.08%。
Read next: Dollar Upside On The Cards Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Cautious Fed And Solid US Economic Data, Says Expert
阅读下一篇：地缘政治紧张局势、美联储谨慎态度及坚实的美国经济数据支撑美元走强，专家表示
Image via Wikimedia Commons
图片来自Wikimedia Commons
