We Think THOR Industries (NYSE:THO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think THOR Industries (NYSE:THO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that THOR Industries, Inc. (NYSE:THO) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
沃伦·巴菲特曾 famously 说:'波动性远非风险的同义词。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是想看看它的债务使用情况,因为债务负担过重会导致破产。我们注意到索尔工业公司(纽交所:THO)在其资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,这些债务对股东来说是个问题吗?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般来说,当一家公司无法轻松还清债务,无论是通过融资还是凭借自身的现金流时,债务才会真正成为问题。资本主义的一个重要组成部分是“创造性毁灭”的过程,其中失败的企业会被他们的银行家无情地清算。然而,更多的(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司不得不以超低的价格发行股票,永久性稀释股东的权益,仅仅是为了改善其资产负债表。不过,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资于增长的企业的极好工具。当我们考虑一家公司的债务使用情况时,首先看的是现金和债务的关系。
What Is THOR Industries's Debt?
索尔工业的债务是什么?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that THOR Industries had debt of US$1.13b at the end of July 2024, a reduction from US$1.30b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$501.3m in cash leading to net debt of about US$632.6m.
下面的图像(您可以点击以获得更详细的信息)显示,索尔工业在2024年7月底的债务为11.3亿美金,较一年前的13亿美金有所减少。另一方面,它有50130万美金的现金,导致净债务约为63260万美金。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20241122/0-7b8830fcff81101a113c8e915b4393f3-0-f0cba7082a5b16d578d1da7263c10e2e.png/big)
How Strong Is THOR Industries' Balance Sheet?
索尔工业的资产负债表有多强?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that THOR Industries had liabilities of US$1.57b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.38b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$501.3m as well as receivables valued at US$700.9m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.74b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
从最新的资产负债表数据来看,我们可以看到索尔工业的短期负债为15.7亿美元,长期负债为13.8亿美元。抵消这些负债后,索尔工业有50130万美元的现金,以及70090万美元的应收账款,均为短期到期。因此,其负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出17.4亿美元。
THOR Industries has a market capitalization of US$5.75b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
索尔工业的市值为57.5亿美元,因此如果有需要,它很可能能够筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。然而,仔细查看其偿还债务的能力仍然是有意义的。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我们使用两个主要指标来告知我们债务水平与盈利的关系。第一个是净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,而第二个是其息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖其利息费用(或其利息覆盖,简称)。这种方法的优点在于我们考虑了债务的绝对数量(通过净债务与EBITDA比率)和与该债务相关的实际利息费用(通过其利息覆盖比率)。
While THOR Industries's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.90 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.8 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Shareholders should be aware that THOR Industries's EBIT was down 28% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if THOR Industries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
尽管索尔工业的低负债与EBITDA比率为0.90,表明其使用债务的程度仅为适度,但去年EBIT仅能覆盖利息支出4.8倍,这让我们感到担忧。因此,我们建议密切关注融资成本对业务的影响。股东应该意识到索尔工业的EBIT去年下降了28%。如果这种收益趋势持续下去,那么偿还其债务将和把猫赶上过山车一样困难。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个开始的地方。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定索尔工业能否在时间的推移中强化其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,里面显示了分析师的盈利预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, THOR Industries recorded free cash flow worth 76% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
但我们最终的考虑也很重要,因为公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要的是冷硬现金。因此,我们总是检查EBIt中有多少转化为自由现金流。在最近三年中,索尔工业的自由现金流占其EBIt的76%,这一比例比较正常,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税收。这笔冷硬现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。
Our View
我们的观点
THOR Industries's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to convert EBIT to free cash flow is pretty flash. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about THOR Industries's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for THOR Industries that you should be aware of before investing here.
索尔工业的EBIt增长率在此分析中是一个真正的负面因素,尽管我们考虑的其他因素要好得多。毫无疑问,它将EBIt转化为自由现金流的能力非常出色。查看所有这些数据让我们对索尔工业的债务水平感到有些谨慎。虽然债务在潜在回报上确实有其优点,但我们认为股东应该认真考虑债务水平可能使股票风险更高。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个好的起点。然而,并不是所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表上——远非如此。例如,我们发现了一个你在此投资前应该注意的索尔工业的警告信号。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
归根结底,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的特别公司列表(所有公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。
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