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Warren Buffett Claims To Not 'Time The Market,' But His Cash Horde Tells A Different Story

Warren Buffett Claims To Not 'Time The Market,' But His Cash Horde Tells A Different Story

沃伦·巴菲特声称自己不会"时间市场",但他的大量现金储备却讲述了另一种故事
Benzinga ·  11/23 01:14

For decades, famed value investor Warren Buffett has insisted that he does not try to "time the market." But, his recent sales could serve as a warning sign for investors amid a period of protracted valuations.

数十年来,著名的价值投资者沃伦·巴菲特坚称他不会尝试"时间市场"。但是,他最近的卖出行为可能成为投资者在持续估值周期中的警示信号。

What Happened: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:BRK) (NYSE:BRK) has gradually wound down its largest positions over the last year.

发帖:巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(纽交所:BRK)已逐渐削减过去一年中的最大头寸。

Berkshire slashed its largest position in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) by over two-thirds since 2023. Buffett also sold much of his position in Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) since the summer. He also trimmed back nearly all of his position in Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA), an atypically short holding period for the investor who preaches investing for the long term.

伯克希尔削减了其在苹果公司(纳斯达克:AAPL)的最大头寸超过三分之二自2023年以来。巴菲特还自去年夏天以来出售了大部分美国银行股份。他还削减了几乎所有在Ulta Beauty Inc(纳斯达克:ULTA)的头寸,这对于强调长期投资的投资者来说是一个不寻常的短期持有时间。

The Omaha, Nebraska-based company's cash horde now stands at an astounding $325 billion.

总部位于内布拉斯加州奥马哈的公司的现金储备现在高达惊人的3250亿美元。

Why it Matters: Several market experts have struggled to comprehend Buffett's thought process — is he bearish on the market at large? Reallocating his portfolio away from Apple and Bank of America to diversify? Or, as Buffett hinted at in May, anticipating a future change to U.S. tax laws?

为什么重要:几位市场专家一直很难理解巴菲特的思维过程——他对整个市场持悲观态度吗?重新配置投资组合摆脱苹果和美国银行以实现多样化?或者,正如巴菲特在五月时暗示的,是预期未来的美国税收法律变化?

An article from Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar could fuel the first theory. A post on X relayed a graph from the article showing Buffett's cash pile conspicuously rising ahead of financial crises.

彭博社专栏作家Nir Kaissar的一篇文章可能加强了第一种理论。X的一篇发帖转述了该文章中显示巴菲特现金储备明显增加以应对金融危机的图表。

Interesting piece here from @markets and how Buffett's cash hoard often spikes before equity market slowdowns. pic.twitter.com/9aFmsMpP2N

— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) November 21, 2024
The company's cash allocation ticked upwards ahead of two large market crashes in 2000 and 2008.

这里有一篇有趣的文章@markets,介绍了巴菲特的现金储备在股票市场放缓之前经常激增。 pic.twitter.com/9aFmsMpP2N

— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) 2024年11月21日
公司在2000年和2008年两次大股市崩盘前的几天里,现金配置有所提升。

As companies in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) sustain a period of high valuations, Buffett could simply be heeding his advice, "to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful," allocating his portfolio away from what he deems riskier investments

随着SPDR 标普500 ETF 信托(纽交所:SPY)中的公司维持高估值时期,巴菲特可能只是遵循他的建议,“在别人贪婪时要害怕,在别人恐惧时才贪婪”,将投资组合从他认为更具风险的投资中调配出去。

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Photo: Shutterstock

Photo: shutterstock

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