Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) is arguably one of the most reliable dividend stocks in Canada, with decades of consistent payouts and steady growth behind it. Even as crude oil prices are currently hovering close to where they were three years ago, CNQ stock has rewarded investors with more than 90% positive returns in the last three years, even after excluding its dividend payouts.

With a market cap of about $102 billion, CNQ stock currently trades at $40.30 per share with 11.3% year-to-date gains. At this market price, it offers an attractive 4.8% annualized dividend yield and distributes its payouts every quarter.

Before I highlight some key fundamental factors that could play a key role in determining where CNQ stock might be three years from now, let's take a closer look at some reasons for its impressive performance in recent years.

What has driven CNQ stock higher in recent years

For those unfamiliar, Canadian Natural is one of the largest oil and gas producers in Canada that generates revenue by extracting and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.

As the fears about the negative impact of the global pandemic on the energy sector grew, crude oil prices nosedived in 2020. Lower commodity prices, coupled with the pandemic-driven operational challenges, led to a 26% YoY (year-over-year) decline in Canadian Natural's total revenue that year. As a result, the company reported an adjusted net loss of $756 million in 2020 against an adjusted profit of $3.8 billion in the previous year. This poor financial performance triggered a selloff in CNQ stock as it ended the year with over 27% losses.

Nevertheless, as the demand for energy products recovered sharply in the following years, CNQ stock inched up from $14.98 per share at the end of 2020 to $43.41 per share by the end of 2023. Although economic and geopolitical uncertainties have kept oil and gas prices highly volatile in 2024, Canadian Natural stock is continuing its upward momentum to trade at $48.30 per share currently.

Record-setting operations performance continues in 2024

Last month, Canadian Natural announced its third-quarter results, which highlighted the company's impressive operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives.

During the quarter, the Canadian energy giant achieved strong average production of about 1.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Notably, the operating costs for its oil sand segment also dropped by 7% YoY.

In another major move, it recently announced the acquisition of Chevron's Alberta assets for $6.5 billion, including a 20% stake in the Athabasca oil sands project and a 70% operated interest in light crude oil and liquids-rich assets in the Duvernay play. These acquisitions are likely to accelerate CNQ's financial growth trends further by boosting its production levels in the coming years.

Where will CNQ stock be in three years?

CNQ remains focused on strengthening long-life, low-decline synthetic crude oil production capacity to maintain robust free cash flow generation in the long run. Besides that, the company continues to focus on innovative technologies to improve operational efficiency, which should boost its profitability in the future.

While it's nearly impossible for anyone to predict where exactly CNQ stock will be three years from now, given its strong fundamentals and growth initiatives, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to outperform the broader market by a huge margin in the next three years.