Why Walmart, Amazon Stock Could Stumble This Holiday Season
Why Walmart, Amazon Stock Could Stumble This Holiday Season
Shares of Walmart fell by an average of 1.1% during the month, marking their worst average monthly performance.Traders eyeing U.S. retail giants like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Best Buy ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday may be in for an unpleasant surprise as December kicks in.
交易员们关注着亚马逊公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）、沃尔玛公司（纽交所股票代码：WMT）和百思买等美国零售巨头，在黑色星期五和网络星期一前可能会在12月份出现令人不快的惊喜。
Despite the holiday shopping frenzy, historical data spanning decades suggests December is not the ideal month to invest in these retail behemoths.
尽管节日购物狂潮，跨越几十年的历史数据表明，12月并非在这些零售巨头投资的理想月份。
December Is (Not) The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year For Walmart
对于沃尔玛来说，12月并非一年中最美好的时光
Over the last 20 years, December has been Walmart's weakest month of the year.
在过去20年中，12月一直是沃尔玛一年中表现最疲弱的月份。
Shares of Walmart fell by an average of 1.1% during the month, marking their worst average monthly performance.
沃尔玛股票在该月份平均下跌了1.1%，创下最差的平均月度表现。
Adding to the gloom, Walmart shares have only closed December in positive territory 40% of the time—just 8 times in 20 years. This is the lowest winning ratio for any month in the calendar year.
更令人沮丧的是，沃尔玛股票仅有40%的时间能在12月份收于正数——在20年中仅有8次。这是一年中任何月份最低的盈利比例。
The retailer's worst December performance in recent history occurred in 2022, when Walmart shares tumbled 7% during the month.
这家零售商近年来在历史上表现最差的12月份发生在2022年，当时沃尔玛股价在该月下跌了7%。
When extending the timeframe to 30 years, the data remains consistent: December is still Walmart's worst-performing month, with shares dropping 0.9% on average and maintaining a winning ratio of just 40%.
当将时间跨度延长到30年时，数据仍然保持一致：12月仍然是沃尔玛表现最差的月份，股价平均下跌0.9%，并且仅有40%的胜率。
Read also: November Small-Cap Surge Could Carry Into December's Santa Rally, Historical Trends Suggest
阅读更多：历史趋势表明，11月小盘股飙升可能延续至12月的圣诞节涨势
Amazon Also Sees Red In December
亚马逊在12月也呈现红色
Amazon.com Inc. also tends to falter during the holiday season. While the e-commerce giant doesn't post losses as steep as Walmart's, December ranks as Amazon's second-worst month for stock performance, trailing only February.
亚马逊公司在假日季节也往往走势疲软。虽然这家电子商务巨头的亏损不如沃尔玛严重，但12月仍然是亚马逊股票表现第二差的月份，仅次于2月。
Over the last 20 years, Amazon shares have fallen an average of 0.27% in December, with a winning ratio of just 45%.
过去20年，亚马逊股票在12月的平均下跌幅度为0.27%，仅有45%的胜率。
The worst December on record came recently in 2022, when Amazon's stock plummeted by 13%, reflecting broader market turbulence.
有史以来最糟糕的12月发生在最近的2022年，当时亚马逊股价暴跌了13%，反映出更广泛的市场动荡。
However, December hasn't always been grim—Amazon saw some standout gains in the past, including a 20.1% rally in 2008 and an 11.6% jump in 2004.
然而，12月并非一直黯淡无光——亚马逊在过去曾取得一些杰出的涨幅，包括2008年的20.1%涨幅和2004年的11.6%跃升。
Why Do Amazon And Walmart Struggle During the Holidays?
亚马逊和沃尔玛为什么在假日季节遇到困难？
At first glance, the holiday season—a time of frenzied shopping activity—might seem like a boon for retail stocks. But Wall Street investors often shy away from buying retail giants like Amazon and Walmart during this period, and the reasons boil down to profit margins.
乍一看，假日季节——疯狂购物活动的时期——似乎对零售股票有利。但华尔街投资者在这段时间往往避而远之，不愿购买亚马逊和沃尔玛这样的零售巨头股票，原因归结于利润率。
Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals may boost revenue, but they also weigh on profit margins. The steep discounts needed to attract consumers during the holidays often lead to margin compression, a red flag for investors prioritizing profitability.
黑色星期五和网络星期一的特价优惠可能提升营业收入，但也给利润率带来压力。假日季节吸引消费者所需的大幅折扣通常会导致利润率压缩，这对优先考虑盈利能力的投资者来说是一个警示信号。
The holiday period is typically when expectations for retail performance are already sky-high. If results don't meet or exceed those lofty benchmarks, stocks often sell-off.
假日季节通常是零售业绩期望已经空前高涨的时期。如果业绩未能达到或超过那些高不可攀的基准线，股票往往会遭到抛售。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
