Earnings Growth of 0.8% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Chacha Food Company (SZSE:002557) Shareholders
Earnings Growth of 0.8% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Chacha Food Company (SZSE:002557) Shareholders
Chacha Food Company, Limited (SZSE:002557) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 16% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 45% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
洽洽食品公司(深交所:002557)的股东应该很高兴,看到股价在上个季度上涨了16%。但这并不能改变过去三年回报不尽如人意的事实。实际上,股价在过去三年下跌了45%,远远低于市场回报。
Since Chacha Food Company has shed CN¥1.0b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
由于洽洽食品公司在过去7天内价值蒸发了10亿人民币,我们来看看长期下滑是否是由公司的经济因素驱动的。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
虽然市场是一个强大的定价机制,但股价反映的不仅仅是企业的基本业绩,还有投资者的情绪。一个不完美但简单的方式来考虑公司市场意识的变化是比较每股收益(EPS)的变化和股价的变化。
Although the share price is down over three years, Chacha Food Company actually managed to grow EPS by 2.4% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
尽管股价在三年内下滑,洽洽食品公司实际上在此期间每年的每股收益增长了2.4%。这相当让人困惑,并表明可能有某些暂时因素提振了股价。或者,过去的增长预期可能不切实际。
It's pretty reasonable to suspect the market was previously to bullish on the stock, and has since moderated expectations. But it's possible a look at other metrics will be enlightening.
认为市场过去对该股过于看好,并且此后调整了预期是相当合理的。但检查其他指标可能是有启迪性的。
Revenue is actually up 7.3% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Chacha Food Company further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
营业收入在三年内实际上增长了7.3%,因此股价下跌似乎并不依赖于营业收入。这可能值得进一步调查洽洽食品公司;虽然我们可能在这项分析中遗漏了一些东西,但也可能存在机会。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
以下图片显示了收益和营收随时间的变化(如果你点击图片,可以看到更详细的信息)。
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Chacha Food Company is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Chacha Food Company will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
洽洽食品公司在投资者中享有很高的知名度,许多聪明的分析师试图预测未来的利润水平。因此,查看分析师对洽洽食品公司未来盈利的看法(免费的分析师共识预估)是非常有意义的。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Chacha Food Company the TSR over the last 3 years was -41%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报率(TSR)。股价回报仅反映股价的变化,而TSR包括分红的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何折扣资本筹集或拆分的好处。可以说,TSR提供了一个更全面的股票回报情况。我们注意到,洽洽食品公司在过去三年的TSR为-41%,这比上述提到的股价回报要好。而且,不用猜就知道,分红支付在很大程度上解释了这一差异!
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
While the broader market gained around 7.6% in the last year, Chacha Food Company shareholders lost 19% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Chacha Food Company's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.
在过去一年中,整体市场上涨约7.6%,而洽洽食品公司的股东损失了19%(甚至包括分红派息)。然而,请记住,即使是最好的股票,有时在十二个月内也会表现不及市场。长期投资者不会感到太沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年获得了0.3%的收益。如果基本数据继续显示长期可持续增长的潜力,那么当前的抛售可能是一个值得考虑的机会。考虑到这一点,一个稳健的下一步可能是查看洽洽食品公司的分红派息记录。这张免费的互动图表是一个很好的开始。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果您愿意查看另一家公司(具有潜在的更好财务状况),请不要错过这个免费的公司列表,证明它们可以增长收益。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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