Maybank said it came away from AEON's 3Q24 results briefing feeling positive believing the earnings should improve in the subsequent quarters on better consumer spending and stronger PMS contribution driven by its newly renovated malls. The house keeps its earnings estimates, BUY call and TP of MYR1.95.
Retail sales momentum is picking up speed
At AEON's 3Q24 results briefing, management shared that 9M24 retail EBIT margin increased to 2% (+0.3 ppts YoY) despite a flattish average basket size of MYR61.80 (9M23: MYR62.00), and a weaker product mix – where its lower margin foodline sales grew at the expense of softline and hardline categories. The house believes that the retail margin improvement had come from higher sales conversion rates from intensified marketing campaigns for AEON's 40th anniversary this year and expects this positive momentum to continue into 4Q24E.
PMS earnings have further room to grow
The group's 9M24 mall occupancy rate has risen to 95.1% (9M23: 91.8%) alongside positive rental reversions of between +7% to +9%. Maybank said it understands that the remaining mall rejuvenation exercises planned for FY24 – at AEON Bukit Indah, AEON Ipoh Station 18, and AEON Tebrau City – have been completed in early-Nov 2024, to avoid any shopping disruptions to
consumers during the Dec festive month. AEON will resume its mall rejuvenation activities in FY25 but has not shared any detailed plans at this juncture. Note that AEON typically experiences c.15% to 20% increase in sales in the year following major store or mall renovations.
Positive outlook intact
Aside from expectations for stronger festive spending in 4Q24E, the civil service salary increase (effective 1 Dec 2024) should also provide an added boost to AEON's retail and PMS sales in the next few quarters. The impact of minimum wage increase (effective 1 Feb 2025) on AEON's opex will be minimal as foreign workers make up <5% of its total workforce. Separately, management targets to achieve EBIT margins of c.2.5% for its retail segment in FY24 (9M24: 1.7%) and >38% for its PMS segment (9M24: 39.7%), consistent with modelled assumptions (retail: 2.3%, PMS: 40%).
马来亚银行表示，在永旺24年第三季度业绩发布会之后，它感到乐观，认为由于消费者支出增加，以及新装修的购物中心推动的PMS贡献增加，后续几个季度的收益将有所改善。众议院维持其收益预期、买入看涨期权和目标价为1.95马币。
零售销售势头正在加快
在永旺的24年第三季度业绩发布会上，管理层表示，尽管平均篮子规模持平，为61.80马币（9M23：62.00令吉），而且产品组合疲软——其利润率较低的食品类销售增长是以牺牲软产品和强硬品类为代价的，但其利润率较低的食品类销售额增长了2％（同比增长0.3个百分点）。该公司认为，零售利润率的提高来自于今年永旺40周年之际加强的营销活动所带来的销售转化率的提高，并预计这种积极势头将持续到 4Q24E。
PMS 的收入还有进一步的增长空间
该集团的9M24购物中心入住率已上升至95.1％（9M23：91.8％），租金回报率在+ 7％至+ 9％之间。马来亚银行表示，据了解，计划于24财年在永旺武吉英达、永旺怡保18号站和永旺特布劳城举行的其余购物中心振兴活动已于2024年11月初完成，以避免购物中断
十二月节日期间的消费者。永旺将在25财年恢复其购物中心振兴活动，但目前尚未分享任何详细计划。请注意，在大型商店或购物中心装修之后，永旺的销售额通常会增长约15％至20％。
乐观前景不变
除了预期 4Q24E 的节日支出将增加外，公务员薪资的上调（2024年12月1日生效）还将进一步推动永旺在未来几个季度的零售和PMS销售。最低工资提高（自2025年2月1日起生效）对永旺运营支出的影响微乎其微，因为外国工人占其总劳动力的比例<5％。另外，管理层的目标是根据模拟假设（零售：2.3％，PMS：40％），在24财年实现零售板块的息税前利润率约为2.5％（24年9个月：1.7％），PMS板块的息税前利润率超过38％（24年9个月：39.7％）。
