Singapore Banks a 'Safe Haven' From US Market Volatility
Singapore Banks a 'Safe Haven' From US Market Volatility
"Earnings downside risk looks low, with the flat earnings expected for the sector next year already taking into account the four US Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts and given steps by banks to protect net interest income (NII)," said RHB's Singapore Research team on a report published on 25 November 2024.UOB, OCBC, and DBS have low earnings downside risk and offer attractive dividends.
大华银行、华侨银行和星展银行的收益下行风险较低，并提供诱人的股息。
Singapore banks– and in particular, their stocks– may be a good place to hide from the market volatility brought about by the 2024 US elections and shifting expectations from the US Federal Reserve's next moves.
新加坡银行，尤其是它们的股票，可能是躲避2024年美国大选带来的市场波动以及对美联储下一步行动预期的转变的好地方。
UOB, OCBC, and DBS have low earnings downside risk, with even the possibility of earnings and margins rising, RHB said in a report.
RhB在一份报告中表示，大华银行、华侨银行和星展银行的盈利下行风险较低，甚至有可能出现收益和利润率上升。
"Earnings downside risk looks low, with the flat earnings expected for the sector next year already taking into account the four US Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts and given steps by banks to protect net interest income (NII)," said RHB's Singapore Research team on a report published on 25 November 2024.
RHB新加坡研究小组在2024年11月25日发布的一份报告中表示：“盈利下行风险看起来很低，考虑到美国联邦基金利率（FFR）的四次下调以及银行为保护净利息收入（NII）而采取的措施，预计明年该行业的收益将持平。”
With swap prices indicating a less aggressive FFR cut cycle, there could be upside to their net interest margins (NIM) and earnings, the report added.
报告补充说，由于掉期价格表明FFR削减周期不那么激进，因此其净利率（NIM）和收益可能会有上行空间。
The expected NIM squeeze in 2025 should be cushioned by loan growth momentum, healthy fees, and normalisation of the banks' credit cost run rates.
贷款增长势头、健康的费用和银行信贷成本运行利率的正常化应能缓解2025年预期的NiM紧缩。
Their dividend yields are also attractive with a dividend yield of 5.6% for FY2025, RHB said.
RhB表示，他们的股息收益率也很有吸引力，FY2025 的股息收益率为5.6％。
Of the banks, DBS offers dividend safety, given its guidance for a fixed step-up in absolute dividend per share (DPS).
在银行中，星展银行提供股息安全，因为其指导是固定增加每股绝对股息（DPS）。
Should earnings in 2025 turn out to be better than expected, OCBC Bank (OCBC) and UOB offer a better potential for a higher DPS.
如果2025年的收益好于预期，华侨银行（OCBC）和大华银行更有可能提高存款准备金。
Overall, Singapore banks' profit after tax & minority interests (PATMI) is projected to increase by between 1% to 2% in FY2024 to FY2026, with a 'decent' 7% YoY PATMI increase expected for FY2024.
总体而言，新加坡银行的税后利润和少数权益（PATMI）在 FY2024 至 FY2026 中预计将增长1％至2％，而预计FY2024 的PATMI同比增长 “不错” 7％。
