Here's Why Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Here's Why Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE:EMR) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李露对此毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”当你检查公司的资产负债表的风险时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业倒闭时通常会涉及债务。重要的是,艾默生电气公司(纽约证券交易所代码:EMR)确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务会带来多大的风险?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时危险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但是如果企业无法偿还贷款,那么债务就任其摆布。资本主义的组成部分是 “创造性破坏” 过程,在这种过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。尽管这种情况并不常见,但我们经常会看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人迫使他们以不良价格筹集资金。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表廉价资本,尤其是当它以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is Emerson Electric's Net Debt?
艾默生电气的净负债是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Emerson Electric had debt of US$7.69b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$8.16b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$3.59b in cash leading to net debt of about US$4.10b.
您可以点击下图查看更多详细信息,该图片显示,截至2024年9月底,艾默生电气的债务为76.9亿美元,较去年同期的81.6亿美元有所减少。另一方面,它拥有35.9亿美元的现金,净负债约为41.0亿美元。
How Healthy Is Emerson Electric's Balance Sheet?
艾默生电气的资产负债表有多健康?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Emerson Electric had liabilities of US$5.74b due within a year, and liabilities of US$11.0b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$3.59b in cash and US$4.01b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$9.14b.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,艾默生电气的负债为57.4亿美元,此后到期的负债为110亿美元。与此相抵消的是,它有35.9亿美元的现金和40.1亿美元的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款总额91.4亿美元。
Since publicly traded Emerson Electric shares are worth a very impressive total of US$74.5b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
由于公开交易的艾默生电气股票总价值为745亿美元,非常可观,因此这种负债水平似乎不太可能构成重大威胁。但是,有足够的负债,我们肯定会建议股东今后继续监督资产负债表。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过以下方法来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力:将其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),并计算其利息和税前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的难易程度。这样,我们既考虑债务的绝对数量,也考虑为债务支付的利率。
Emerson Electric's net debt is only 0.89 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 33.9 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The good news is that Emerson Electric has increased its EBIT by 3.9% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Emerson Electric's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
艾默生电气的净负债仅为其息税折旧摊销前利润的0.89倍。其息税前利润可支付高达33.9倍的利息支出。因此,你可以争辩说,它受到债务的威胁并不比大象受到老鼠的威胁更大。好消息是,艾默生电气在十二个月内将其息税前利润增长了3.9%,这应该可以缓解对债务偿还的任何担忧。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,未来收益将决定艾默生电气未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Emerson Electric recorded free cash flow worth 69% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,值得检查一下该息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在最近三年中,艾默生电气录得的自由现金流占其息税前利润的69%,鉴于自由现金流不包括利息和税收,这几乎是正常的。这种冷硬现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。
Our View
我们的观点
Happily, Emerson Electric's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Emerson Electric takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Emerson Electric you should know about.
令人高兴的是,艾默生电气令人印象深刻的利息保障意味着它在债务上占了上风。这只是好消息的开始,因为它将息税前利润转换为自由现金流也非常令人鼓舞。考虑到所有这些数据,在我们看来,艾默生电气对债务采取了相当明智的态度。这意味着他们正在承担更多的风险,希望提高股东的回报。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有它们,我们发现了你应该知道的艾默生电气的3个警告信号。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
归根结底,通常最好专注于没有净负债的公司。您可以访问我们的此类公司的特别名单(所有公司都有利润增长的记录)。它是免费的。
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