Economists Split on MAS Policy for Early 2025 as October Inflation Eases
Economists Split on MAS Policy for Early 2025 as October Inflation Eases
"We view our call as a step to restore monetary policy neutrality, to be consistent with trend growth and y/y core inflation returning to desired levels where the cyclically-neutral path of the S$NEER is associated with a positive rate of appreciation" UOB explained.Headline and core inflation down 1.4%YoY and 2.1%, respectively.
头条和核心通胀分别下降了1.4%和2.1%。
Experts are split on whether a monetary policy adjustment will occur in early 2025 following inflation eases in October.
专家们对2025年初是否会进行货币政策调整存在分歧，这是在十月份通胀减轻之后。
A UOB expert said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may slightly reduce the slope of the S$NEER policy band by 50 basis points in early 2025, citing easing inflationary pressures and a gradual return to price stability.
大华银行专家表示，新加坡货币管理局（MAS）可能会在2025年初将新加坡美元有效汇率篮(S$NEER)政策带的斜率稍微减少50个基点，原因是通胀压力减轻以及逐渐回归价格稳定。
"We view our call as a step to restore monetary policy neutrality, to be consistent with trend growth and y/y core inflation returning to desired levels where the cyclically-neutral path of the S$NEER is associated with a positive rate of appreciation" UOB explained.
“我们认为我们的看涨意味着恢复货币政策的中立性，与趋势增长和年度核心通胀回到期望水平相一致，其中新加坡美元有效汇率篮的周期中立路径与正的升值速度相关联。” 大华银行解释道。
They added that core inflation is expected to ease to 1.7% in 2025, supported by higher base effects and moderating cost pressures.
他们补充说，核心通胀预计将在2025年降至1.7%，受到更高的基效应和成本压力的缓解支撑。
Headline inflation eased to 1.4% YoY in October from 2.0% in September, whilst MAS core inflation fell to 2.1% from 2.8% over the same period.
十月份，头条通胀从九月的2.0%降至1.4%，而MAS核心通胀在同一时期从2.8%降至2.1%。
RHB, however, expects MAS to maintain its current policy parameters into 1H25, emphasizing the entrenched disinflation trend and manageable inflation risks.
不过，RHb预计MAS将维持目前的政策参数到2025年上半年，着重强调根深蒂固的通缩趋势和可控的通胀风险。
For 2024, UOB maintains its average core inflation forecast at 2.8% and expects headline inflation to average 2.3%.
对于2024年，大华银行维持其核心通胀平均预测为2.8%，并预计头条通胀平均为2.3%。
RHB also projects core inflation at 2.8% and headline inflation at 2.6%, citing muted inflationary trends across the region.
RHb还预测核心通货膨胀率为2.8%，头条通货膨胀率为2.6%，并称该地域板块存在通胀趋势温和。
