Here's Why Camel Group (SHSE:601311) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Here's Why Camel Group (SHSE:601311) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Camel Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601311) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录毫不隐瞒地说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受到资本的永久损失。”当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看它使用债务的情况,因为债务过载可能导致灭亡。与许多其他公司一样,Camel Group Co. Ltd. (SHSE:601311) 使用债务。但股东们应该担心它的债务使用吗?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务在企业遇到难以偿还时才能发挥助益,无论是通过新资本还是自由现金流。资本主义的一个核心过程是“创造性毁灭”,失败的企业遭到银行毫不留情地清算。然而,更常见(但同样痛苦)的情况是,它不得不以低价筹集新的权益资本,从而永久性地稀释股东。 当然,债务在企业中可以是一个重要工具,特别是在资本密集型企业中。考虑公司的债务水平时,第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is Camel Group's Debt?
Camel Group的债务情况如何?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Camel Group had CN¥2.35b of debt, an increase on CN¥1.95b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥1.86b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥489.1m.
您可以点击下方的图表查看历史数据,但数据显示,截至2024年9月,Camel Group的债务总额为23.5亿人民币,较一年前的19.5亿人民币增加。然而,由于其拥有18.6亿人民币的现金储备,净债务较少,约为48910万人民币。
How Healthy Is Camel Group's Balance Sheet?
骆驼集团的资产负债表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Camel Group had liabilities of CN¥4.61b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥736.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.86b and CN¥2.83b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥655.4m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
进一步查看最新的资产负债表数据,我们发现骆驼集团有46.1亿元人民币的应付债务,在12个月内到期,73610万元人民币的长期应付债务。另一方面,它有18.6亿元人民币的现金和28.3亿元人民币的应收账款,其中一年内到期。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收款的总和还多了65540万元人民币。
Of course, Camel Group has a market capitalization of CN¥10.4b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
当然,骆驼集团的市值为104亿元人民币,因此这些负债可能是可管理的。但有足够的负债,我们肯定建议股东继续监控资产负债表的发展。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
Camel Group's net debt is only 0.42 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 16.6 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. And we also note warmly that Camel Group grew its EBIT by 10% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Camel Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
骆驼集团的净债务仅为其EBITDA的0.42倍。而其EBIt轻松覆盖了利息支出,是其规模的16.6倍。所以可以说,它对债务的威胁不比大象对老鼠更大。我们还热情地指出,去年骆驼集团的EBIt增长了10%,使其更容易处理债务负担。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终决定骆驼集团能否保持健康资产负债表的将是未来的收益,而不是其他任何因素。因此,如果您想了解专业人士的看法,您可能会发现分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Camel Group recorded free cash flow of 32% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最后,虽然税务部门可能喜欢会计利润,但债权人只接受冰冷的现金。因此,值得查看EBIt中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。回顾最近三年的情况,骆驼集团的自由现金流占其EBIt的32%,这比我们预期的要弱。在偿还债务时,这并不好。
Our View
我们的观点
Camel Group's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But truth be told we feel its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow does undermine this impression a bit. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Camel Group takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Camel Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Camel集团的利息覆盖率表明它可以像Cristiano Ronaldo对付十四岁以下守门员那样轻松处理债务。但事实上,我们觉得它将EBIt转换为自由现金流的能力对这种印象有所削弱。综合考虑所有这些数据,我们认为Camel集团在处理债务方面采取了相当明智的方法。这意味着他们承担了更多的风险,希望提高股东回报。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,根据我们的投资分析,Camel集团显示出了1个警告信号,您应该知道...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。
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