The Bank of Korea (BOK) is widely expected to maintain its key policy rate at 3.25% this week to bolster the Korean won amid the US dollar's recent surge, according to a Reuters poll.
Approximately 90% of the 38 economists surveyed between Nov 18 to 25, anticipate the central bank will keep rates steady on Thursday. Only four forecast a 25-basis-point cut.
This pause in the easing cycle, which began just last month, comes as the won has depreciated 2% in November. Analysts attribute this to concerns over inflationary pressures from US President-elect Donald Trump's policies and the intensified Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Jun-yeong Kim, economist at DS Investment and Securities, highlighted the BOK's caution, citing "heightened FX volatility" due to what is termed "Trump trade" and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
While inflation remains below the 2% target and the economy faces challenges after narrowly avoiding recession, analysts believe the BOK will delay rate cuts until the won stabilises around the mid-1,300s against the dollar.
The won broke through 1,400 per US dollar this month for the first time since April. Expectations of continued dollar strength in 2025 suggest fewer rate cuts in South Korea than in the US, with Reuters polls projecting a 75-basis-point reduction by the BOK next year, compared to a full percentage point by the Federal Reserve.
Forecasts for South Korea's interest rates were revised to three 25-basis-point cuts in January-September 2025 from two cuts predicted earlier. Analysts cited risks to growth in an economy burdened by one of the world's highest household debt levels.
Among 25 economists who provided year-end projections, two-thirds foresee rates ending 2025 at 2.50% or lower, the central bank's neutral rate, while eight anticipate rates at 2.75% or higher.
"Current monetary policy settings are still restrictive and further rate cuts are likely," said Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ. She added that the slowing pace of household debt and housing price growth may offer the BOK some comfort in implementing these cuts.
Some economists anticipate the BOK may revise its 2025 economic growth forecast, currently at 2.1%, reflecting heightened risks.
路透社的一项民意调查显示，在最近美元飙升的情况下，人们普遍预计韩国银行（BOK）本周将把关键政策利率维持在3.25％，以提振韩元。
在11月18日至25日期间接受调查的38位经济学家中，约有90％的人预计央行将在周四保持利率稳定。只有四个人预测将下调25个基点。
上个月才开始的宽松周期暂停，是在11月韩元贬值2％之际发生的。分析人士将其归因于对美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普政策带来的通货膨胀压力以及俄乌冲突加剧的担忧。
DS Investment and Securities的经济学家金俊英强调了韩国央行的谨慎态度，理由是所谓的 “特朗普贸易” 和美联储的鹰派立场导致 “外汇波动加剧”。
尽管通货膨胀率仍低于2％的目标，经济在勉强避免衰退后面临挑战，但分析师认为，日本央行将推迟降息，直到韩元兑美元汇率稳定在1300年代中期左右。
本月韩元自4月以来首次突破每美元1,400美元。对2025年美元持续走强的预期表明，韩国的降息次数少于美国，路透社民意调查预计，韩国央行明年将降息75个基点，而美联储的降息幅度为整整一个百分点。
韩国对利率的预测从先前预测的两次降息修订为2025年1月至9月的三次25个基点的降息。分析师列举了受全球最高家庭债务水平之一困扰的经济体的增长风险。
在提供年终预测的25位经济学家中，三分之二的人预计到2025年将利率为2.50％或更低，即央行的中性利率，而八位经济学家预计利率为2.75％或更高。
澳新银行经济学家克里斯塔尔·谭表示：“当前的货币政策设置仍然是限制性的，有可能进一步降息。”她补充说，家庭债务和房价增长步伐放缓可能会让日本央行在实施这些削减措施时感到放松。
一些经济学家预计，日本央行可能会修改其2025年经济增长预测，目前为2.1％，这反映了风险的增加。
