Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks
Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks
The current year hasn't been great for oil prices. They experienced a climb in the first few months of the year, but since then, it has mostly been a downward slump. The current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is about US$15 lower compared to its five-year peak. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has cut its original outlook for 2025 by US$6.5 per barrel. Even though the estimated price is higher than the current WTI price per barrel, it doesn't look very promising.
今年对油价来说并不乐观。他们在今年的前几个月经历了攀升,但从那以后,主要是向下滑动。目前的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)与其五年峰值相比下跌了约15美元。美国能源信息管理局已将其最初的2025年展望下调了每桶6.5美元。尽管估计价格高于当前的WTI每桶价格,但看起来并不十分乐观。
Even more troubling is the forecast about lower oil demand. Geopolitical variables may also influence the price. Some can push the price down further, while others may push it well beyond the estimates.
更令人不安的是石油需求下降的预测。地缘政治变量也可能影响价格。有些人可以进一步压低价格,而另一些人则可能将其推高出预期。
A wild card variable is any breakthrough in battery technology or hydrogen, which makes zero-emission vehicles more financially feasible and practical — something like that can decimate oil demand, at least for a while.
通配符变量是电池技术或氢气的任何突破,这使得零排放汽车在经济上更具可行性和实用性——这样的东西至少在一段时间内可以减少石油需求。
With that in mind, it's prudent to be careful with your choices for the energy stocks.
考虑到这一点,谨慎的做法是谨慎地选择能源股。
A midstream stock
一只中游股票
Enbridge (TSX:ENB) is not just Canada's midstream giant but one of the largest pipeline companies in the world. It's also rapidly growing its natural gas utility businesses, which further solidifies its overall business model. This makes its revenues quite stable and less vulnerable to price fluctuations than upstream or even downstream businesses. This, in turn, makes its dividends more financially stable and reliable.
Enbridge(多伦多证券交易所股票代码:ENB)不仅是加拿大的中游巨头,也是世界上最大的管道公司之一。它还迅速发展其天然气公用事业业务,这进一步巩固了其整体商业模式。与上游甚至下游业务相比,这使得其收入相当稳定,并且不易受到价格波动的影响。这反过来又使其股息在财务上更加稳定和可靠。
The business model, dividend sustainability, and stellar dividend history (29 consecutive years of dividend growth) collectively make Enbridge one of the safest stocks you can buy in this oil price uncertainty environment. The 6.1% dividend yield is also a compelling reason to buy this stock.
商业模式、股息可持续性和出色的股息历史(连续29年的股息增长)共同使Enbridge成为在这种油价不确定环境中您可以购买的最安全的股票之一。6.1%的股息收益率也是购买该股票的令人信服的理由。
While growth/capital appreciation potential isn't a strong suit for this stock, it is quite bullish right now. It has grown 19% in the last six months. In contrast, the TSX Energy Index slipped about 5% over the same period. This further endorses Enbridge's ability to remain resilient even when the rest of the sector is weak.
尽管增长/资本增值潜力并不适合这只股票,但目前它相当看涨。在过去的六个月中,它增长了19%。相比之下,多伦多证券交易所能源指数同期下跌了约5%。这进一步证实了Enbridge即使该行业其他部门疲软也能保持弹性。
An upstream stock
上游股票
Parex Resources (TSX:PXT) is currently one of the most heavily discounted energy stocks in Canada, which is surprising since most upstream stocks enjoyed a solid bull market phase while this stock slipped.
Parex Resources(多伦多证券交易所股票代码:PXT)目前是加拿大折扣幅度最高的能源股之一,这令人惊讶,因为大多数上游股票在股票下滑时都经历了稳健的牛市阶段。
Even though it's turning things around, it's still trading at a 48% discount from its five-year peak. Despite a weak oil price outlook, this discount and its undervaluation are among the most compelling reasons to buy this stock.
尽管它正在扭转局面,但其交易价格仍比五年峰值折扣48%。尽管油价前景疲软,但这种折扣及其低估是购买该股的最有说服力的理由之一。
Another reason is the incredibly high dividend yield. The company is currently paying dividends at a yield of about 10.3%, and the payout ratio of 44% is rock solid, making its dividends highly desirable. If the company starts recovering from its current fall, you might also get returns from its growth.
另一个原因是令人难以置信的高股息收益率。该公司目前的股息收益率约为10.3%,而44%的派息率坚如磐石,因此其分红非常理想。如果公司开始从当前的跌势中恢复过来,您可能还会从其增长中获得回报。
Foolish takeaway
愚蠢的外卖
The energy sector is going through a rough phase around the globe. Part of it is the worldwide switch to renewables. Geo-political factors like tensions involving major oil producers and importers and leadership changes can also exacerbate the situation. With this many concerning variables in the equation, stocks like Enbridge and Parex may be healthy picks for a wide range of investors.
全球能源行业正在经历一个艰难的阶段。其中一部分是全球向可再生能源的转变。涉及主要石油生产国和进口国的紧张局势以及领导层更迭等地缘政治因素也可能加剧局势。由于等式中有这么多相关的变量,对于广大投资者来说,像Enbridge和Parex这样的股票可能是健康的选择。