Analysts Expect Gas Malaysia To Have Lower Earnings In FY25 Due To Brent Downward Trent
Analysts Expect Gas Malaysia To Have Lower Earnings In FY25 Due To Brent Downward Trent
Maybank IB emphasised Gas Malaysia's commendable 3Q24 sales volume growth, estimating a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, it projected a decline in FY25 earnings due to the downward trend in the Malaysia Reference Prices for gas. Maybank IB noted that Gas Malaysia's more than 6% dividend yield remains a key draw for investors, providing a cushion against potential downside risks.
Gas Malaysia Bhd has received mixed calls from analysts following its strong nine-month financial year of 2024 (9MFY24) performance. MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) maintained a BUY rating with an upward revision of its share target price to RM4.09 from RM3.96, citing resilient earnings and sectoral demand. Conversely, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) maintained a HOLD call, albeit raising its target price to RM3.80 from RM3.60, noting potential headwinds from declining gas prices but highlighting the utility's attractive dividend yield.
继2024财年（9MFY24）的强劲表现之后，马来西亚天然气有限公司收到了分析师的喜忧参半。MIDF Amanah投资银行有限公司（MIDF Research）维持买入评级，以盈利和行业需求为由将其目标股价从3.96令吉上调至4.09令吉。相反，马来亚银行投资银行有限公司（Maybank IB）维持了持仓看涨期权，尽管将目标价格从3.60令吉上调至3.80令吉，指出了天然气价格下跌带来的潜在不利因素，但凸显了该公用事业公司诱人的股息收益率。
Gas Malaysia reported 9MFY24 net profit of RM329 million, an 18% year-on-year (YoY) increase, despite a 4.6% decline in revenue to RM6 billion due to lower average natural gas selling prices (ASP). Higher gas volumes, increased tolling fees and joint venture contributions offset the revenue decline, reflecting strong operational performance. Notably, 3Q24 net profit rose to RM116 million, a 35% YoY increase, attributed to higher gas sales volume and elevated spreads.
马来西亚天然气公司报告称，9MFY24 净利润为32900万令吉，同比增长18％，尽管由于平均天然气销售价格（ASP）下降，收入下降了4.6％，至60令吉。天然气产量的增加、通行费的增加和合资企业缴款的增加抵消了收入的下降，反映了强劲的运营业绩。值得注意的是，第二季度净利润增至11600万令吉，同比增长35％，这要归因于天然气销售量的增加和利差的增加。
MIDF Research highlighted Gas Malaysia's operational resilience, supported by Malaysia's economic recovery and continued gas demand growth. However, the research house revised its FY25–FY26 earnings estimates downward by 17% and 20%, respectively, to align with expectations of lower Brent crude prices, projected at US$75–US$78 per barrel in 2025. The revision incorporates potential volatility in global oil markets, which may impact Gas Malaysia's ASP.
MIDF Research强调了马来西亚天然气公司的运营弹性，这得益于马来西亚的经济复苏和天然气需求持续增长。但是，该研究机构将其25财年至26财年的收益预期分别下调了17％和20％，以符合对布伦特原油价格下跌的预期，预计2025年布伦特原油价格将降至每桶75至78美元。该修订纳入了全球石油市场的潜在波动，这可能会影响马来西亚天然气公司的ASP。
Maybank IB emphasised Gas Malaysia's commendable 3Q24 sales volume growth, estimating a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, it projected a decline in FY25 earnings due to the downward trend in the Malaysia Reference Prices for gas. Maybank IB noted that Gas Malaysia's more than 6% dividend yield remains a key draw for investors, providing a cushion against potential downside risks.
Maybank Ib强调了马来西亚天然气公司在24年第三季度值得称道的销售量增长，估计同比增长10％。但是，由于马来西亚天然气参考价格的下降趋势，该公司预计25财年的收益将下降。Maybank Ib指出，马来西亚天然气公司超过6％的股息收益率仍然是投资者的主要吸引力，为潜在的下行风险提供了缓冲。
Both research houses acknowledged Gas Malaysia's strong fundamentals and strategic positioning in the gas utilities sector. MIDF Research cited operational efficiency and sectoral trends as drivers for future growth, while Maybank IB focused on short-term challenges tied to fluctuating gas spreads and ASP.
两家研究机构都承认马来西亚天然气公司在燃气公用事业领域的强劲基本面和战略定位。MIDF Research指出，运营效率和行业趋势是未来增长的驱动力，而Maybank Ib则专注于与汽油利差和ASP波动相关的短期挑战。
