Bitcoin Correction Could Go As Deep As $88,700 But $125,000 Year-End Target Remains In Play, Says Standard Chartered
Bitcoin Correction Could Go As Deep As $88,700 But $125,000 Year-End Target Remains In Play, Says Standard Chartered
Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) sharp pullback from its record high just under $100,000 has sparked concern among traders, with Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick attributing the correction to several factors, including a reduction in U.S. Treasury term premium and upcoming options expirations.
比特币(加密货币:BTC)从略低于10万美元的历史新高大幅回落引发了交易者的担忧,渣打银行的杰弗里·肯德里克将修正归因于多个因素,包括美国国债期权溢价的降低和即将到期的期权。
What Happened: According to Kendrick, the significant reduction in U.S. Treasury term premium following President-elect Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary announcement triggered Bitcoin's decline.
发生了什么:根据肯德里克的说法,当选总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布财政部长后,美国国债定期保费的大幅下降引发了比特币的下跌。
In a note sent to Benzinga, he explained that Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge against traditional financial issues, and lower term premiums undermine its appeal in this role.
在发给本辛加的一份说明中,他解释说,比特币通常被视为对冲传统金融问题的工具,较低的定期保费削弱了其在这一角色中的吸引力。
Data from the New York Fed, which tracks term premium movements, supports the connection between recent Treasury market activity and the crypto market's performance.
追踪定期保费变动的纽约联储的数据支持了近期美国国债市场活动与加密市场表现之间的联系。
"Bitcoin thrives on uncertainty in traditional finance. When Treasury term premiums drop, that hedge utility temporarily diminishes," Kendrick noted.
“比特币因传统金融的不确定性而蓬勃发展。当美国国债定期保费下降时,该对冲效用将暂时减少。” 肯德里克指出。
Further adding to the downward pressure are the substantial monthly options expiries scheduled for Friday.
定于周五到期的大量月度期权进一步加剧了下行压力。
Data from Deribit highlights that BTC options with strike prices ranging from $85,000 to $100,000 account for over 18,000 BTC in open interest.
来自Deribit的数据突出表明,行使价在8.5万美元至10万美元之间的比特币期权占未平仓合约超过18,000枚比特币。
Historically, options expirations have constrained price movement, with traders positioning themselves around these key levels, creating a magnet effect on spot prices.
从历史上看,期权到期限制了价格走势,交易者将自己定位在这些关键水平附近,从而对现货价格产生了磁铁效应。
Kendrick predicts a potential drop below $88,700—the average purchase price for ETFs and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) since the U.S. elections.
肯德里克预测可能会跌破88,700美元,这是自美国大选以来ETF和微策略(纳斯达克股票代码:MSTR)的平均购买价格。
This could lead Bitcoin to test its critical support zone between $85,000 and $88,700 before resuming its uptrend.
这可能会导致比特币在恢复上涨趋势之前测试其在85,000美元至88,700美元之间的关键支撑区域。
Despite the retracement, institutional interest remains robust.
尽管出现回调,但机构兴趣仍然强劲。
ETFs have recorded inflows of approximately 77,000 BTC since the U.S. elections, while MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 134,000 BTC.
自美国大选以来,ETF的流入量已达到约77,000比特币,而微策略又收购了13.4万枚比特币。
However, Kendrick cautions that the recent influx of institutional buying at an average price of $88,700 could serve as a temporary ceiling until broader market dynamics shift.
但是,肯德里克警告说,在更广泛的市场动态发生变化之前,最近以88,700美元的平均价格涌入的机构买盘可能成为临时上限。
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Why It Matters: Bitcoin's pullback has also affected the wider crypto market.
为何重要:比特币的回调也影响了更广泛的加密市场。
BTC's decline from $98,500 to $93,500 coincided with a dip in overall market capitalization from $3.5 billion to $3.35 billion.
比特币从98,500美元跌至93500美元,恰逢总市值从35亿美元下降至33.5亿美元。
Futures markets saw over $500 million liquidated during the volatility, reflecting heightened risk aversion.
期货市场在波动期间清算了超过5亿美元,这反映了避险情绪的加剧。
Kendrick maintained his year-end target of $125,000 for Bitcoin and a 2025 projection of $200,000.
肯德里克维持了比特币12.5万美元的年终目标和2025年20万美元的预测。
He sees the current retracement as a necessary correction, driven by macroeconomic factors and technical market events.
他认为,在宏观经济因素和技术性市场事件的推动下,当前的回调是必要的修正。
"We are still in a structural bull market," Kendrick emphasized. "Once these short-term headwinds subside, Bitcoin is well-positioned to resume its upward trajectory."
肯德里克强调说:“我们仍处于结构性牛市中。”“一旦这些短期不利因素消退,比特币就完全有能力恢复其上升轨迹。”
Price Action: According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,440, down 1.5% for the day after making a high of $99,645 on Nov. 22.
价格走势:根据CoinGecko的数据,比特币目前的交易价格为93,440美元,在11月22日创下99,645美元的高点之后,当天下跌了1.5%。
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