We Think Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Hanesbrands Inc. (NYSE:HBI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录毫不隐讳地说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是您是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。”因此,聪明人似乎知道,债务(通常与破产有关)是评估公司风险性时很重要的因素。我们注意到哈尼斯品牌服装公司(纽约证券交易所:HBI)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但股东们是否应该担心其债务使用?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还其贷款人,那么它就处在贷款人的控制之下。 如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制企业。 然而,更常见的(但仍然痛苦的)情况是必须以低价筹集新股本,从而永久地稀释股东权益。当然,债务可以是企业中的重要工具,特别是在资本密集型企业中。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is Hanesbrands's Debt?
Hanesbrands的债务是什么?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Hanesbrands had US$3.28b of debt in September 2024, down from US$3.57b, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$317.9m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.96b.
您可以点击下方的图表查看历史数据,但数据显示,哈尼斯品牌服装公司在2024年9月有32.8亿美元的债务,比一年前的35.7亿美元减少。另一方面,其现金为31790万美元,净债务约为29.6亿美元。
How Strong Is Hanesbrands' Balance Sheet?
哈尼斯品牌服装的资产负债表有多牢固?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hanesbrands had liabilities of US$1.58b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$3.74b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$317.9m and US$505.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$4.49b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
深入了解最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到哈尼斯品牌服装在12个月内到期的负债为15.8亿美元,而到期期限超过12个月的负债为37.4亿美元。另一方面,它持有31790万美元的现金和50560万美元价值的一年内到期应收账款。因此,它的负债总额高达44.9亿美元,比其现金和短期应收账款总和多出。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$3.01b, we think shareholders really should watch Hanesbrands's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
考虑到这一赤字实际上高于公司市值的30.1亿美元,我们认为股东们确实应该像父母看着孩子第一次骑自行车那样关注哈尼斯品牌服装的债务水平。从假设情况来看,如果公司被迫以当前股价筹集资金偿还其负债,那将需要极高的稀释。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
While we wouldn't worry about Hanesbrands's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.9, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.9 times is a sign of high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Hanesbrands actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 130%, over the last 12 months. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hanesbrands's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
虽然我们不担心哈尼斯品牌服装的净债务与EBITDA比率为4.9,但我们认为其极低的利息覆盖率为1.9倍是高杠杆的迹象。因此,股东们应该意识到利息支出似乎最近确实对业务产生了影响。然而,对股东来说,值得安慰的是回想哈尼斯品牌服装在过去12个月实际上将其EBIT增长了惊人的130%。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,那将使其未来的债务负担变得更加可管理。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但与任何东西相比,未来的收益将决定哈尼斯品牌服装未来维持健康资产负债表能力。因此,如果您关注未来,可以查看此免费报告,其中显示了分析师的利润预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Hanesbrands reported free cash flow worth 13% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
但是我们的最终考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,逻辑上看,要评估实际自由现金流匹配的EBIt比例。在过去三年中,哈尼斯品牌服装报告的自由现金流占其EBIt的比例为13%,这实际上相当低。这种软弱的现金转化水平削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, Hanesbrands's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Hanesbrands to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hanesbrands , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
表面上看,哈尼斯品牌服装的利息偿付比让我们对股票感到犹豫不决,其总负债水平也不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚上那家空无一人的餐厅更吸引人。但好的一面是,它的EBIt增长率是一个好迹象,让我们更加乐观。我们非常明确地认为哈尼斯品牌服装的风险相当高,这是由于其资产负债表健康状况所致。因此,我们对股票相当谨慎,并认为股东应该密切关注其流动性。资产负债表显然是分析负债时要关注的领域。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。我们已经识别了哈尼斯品牌服装的1个警示信号,了解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。
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