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Is Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) A Risky Investment?

Is Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) A Risky Investment?

动能发展集团(HKG:1277)是一个风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  11/27 11:05

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录对此毫不掩饰,他说'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。' 当我们考虑公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢关注它的债务使用,因为债务超载可能导致灭亡。我们可以看到,Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) 在业务中确实使用了债务。但股东们是否应该担心它的债务使用?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无力偿还债务,那么它就完全受债权人支配。 如果情况变得非常糟糕,债权人可以控制企业。 但更频繁(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以廉价的价格发行股份,永久性削弱股东,只是为了强化其资产负债表。 然而,通过取代股权稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。 当我们考虑一家公司使用债务时,我们首先将现金和债务放在一起。

What Is Kinetic Development Group's Net Debt?

Kinetic Development Group的净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kinetic Development Group had debt of CN¥982.3m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥1.47b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥614.5m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥367.8m.

下面的图片,您可以点击查看更多详情,显示Kinetic Development Group于2024年6月底的债务为CN¥98230万,较去年减少CN¥14.7亿。然而,由于它拥有CN¥61450万的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为CN¥36780万。

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SEHK:1277 Debt to Equity History November 27th 2024
SEHK:1277债务资产比历史记录2024年11月27日

A Look At Kinetic Development Group's Liabilities

概述Kinetic Development Group的负债情况

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kinetic Development Group had liabilities of CN¥3.03b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥895.7m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥614.5m as well as receivables valued at CN¥89.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥3.22b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

从最近的资产负债表中,我们可以看到Kinetic Development Group有着30.3亿人民币的一年内到期的负债,以及89570万人民币到期后超过一年的负债。 抵消这些义务的是,它持有61450万人民币的现金以及12个月内到期的8970万人民币的应收账款。 因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收款的总和高出32.2亿人民币。

Kinetic Development Group has a market capitalization of CN¥10.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

Kinetic Development Group的市值为107亿人民币,所以如果有需要,它很有可能筹集现金以改善其资产负债表。 但我们绝对希望保持警惕,以防其债务带来过多风险。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。

Kinetic Development Group has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.11. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 163 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Kinetic Development Group has boosted its EBIT by 35%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Kinetic Development Group will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Kinetic Development Group的净债务与EBITDA比率仅为0.11。 它的EBIt轻松地覆盖了利息费用,是利息费用的163倍。 因此,我们对其超级保守的债务使用相当放心。 此外,我们很高兴地报告说,Kinetic Development Group的EBIt增长了35%,从而减少了未来债务偿还的风险。 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务情况最多。 但您不能将债务完全孤立地看待;因为Kinetic Development Group将需要利润来偿还债务。 因此,在考虑债务时,着眼于收益趋势绝对是值得的。 请点击这里查看一个互动快照。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kinetic Development Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,一家公司只能用冰冷的硬现金偿还债务,而不能用会计利润。 因此,我们始终检查有多少EBIt转化为自由现金流。 在过去的三年中,Kinetic Development Group产生了强劲的自由现金流,相当于其EBIt的59%,这正是我们所期望的。 这种自由现金流使公司处于一个良好的位置,可以在适当时偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Happily, Kinetic Development Group's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its EBIT growth rate also supports that impression! Looking at the bigger picture, we think Kinetic Development Group's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kinetic Development Group .

Kinetic Development Group的利率期货覆盖率令人印象深刻,这意味着它在债务方面占据上风。而好消息并不止于此,因为其EBIt增长率也支持了这一印象!从更大的角度来看,我们认为Kinetic Development Group对债务的运用似乎相当合理,我们并不担心。虽然债务带来风险,但明智利用时也会带来更高的股本回报。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表之外的风险。为此,您应该注意我们发现的Kinetic Development Group的1个警示信号。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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