A 10% Dividend Yield Today! But Here's Why I'm Buying This TSX Stock for the Long Term
A 10% Dividend Yield Today! But Here's Why I'm Buying This TSX Stock for the Long Term
A 10% yield often spells trouble. And this 10% dividend stock is going through troubles. However, it has the resources to recover from these challenges and benefit from long-term secular growth. The stock in question is BCE (TSX:BCE). The telco has come under fire for several reasons. A restructuring of a giant like BCE made thousands of Canadians jobless. It even had a tussle with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was furious about the layoffs.
10% 的收益率往往会带来麻烦。而这只10%的股息股票遇到了麻烦。但是,它拥有从这些挑战中恢复过来并从长期增长中受益的资源。有问题的股票是BCE(多伦多证券交易所股票代码:BCE)。该电信公司遭到抨击的原因有很多。像BCE这样的巨头的重组使成千上万的加拿大人失业。它甚至与总理贾斯汀·特鲁多发生了争执,后者对裁员感到愤怒。
Troubles at the 10% dividend yield stock
10% 股息收益率股票出现问题
However, the decision was necessary as the radio business and electronics stores were not doing so well. As BCE has almost 30% share in Canada's vast telecom market, a company-wide restructuring will affect the country. At the same time, its significant investments in the 5G infrastructure also had country-wide implications. Many are connected to 5G.
但是,由于无线电业务和电子商店表现不佳,该决定是必要的。由于BCE在加拿大庞大的电信市场中占有近30%的份额,全公司的重组将影响该国。同时,其对5G基础设施的重大投资也对全国产生了影响。许多设备已连接到 5G。
The business restructuring has also pushed BCE into a net loss of $1.2 billion in the third quarter as it is impairing media assets. The company expects free cash flow (FCF) to fall 3-11% this year. All this comes after it paid 111% of its FCF in dividends in 2023 and increased its dividend by 3% in 2024. A higher dividend and lower FCF will probably increase the 2024 payout ratio beyond 120%, which is unsustainable.
业务重组还使BCE在第三季度净亏损12亿美元,因为它削弱了媒体资产。该公司预计,今年的自由现金流(FCF)将下降3-11%。所有这些都是在它在2023年支付了111%的FCF的股息并在2024年将其股息增加了3%之后发生的。更高的股息和更低的FCF可能会使2024年的派息率提高到120%以上,这是不可持续的。
BCE's dividend-growth pause
BCE 的股息增长暂停
BCE needs money to complete the restructuring. The telecom company has paused its dividend growth for 2025 as it is focusing on reducing its debt and enhancing its free cash flow.
BCE需要资金来完成重组。这家电信公司已暂停2025年的股息增长,因为它专注于减少债务和增加自由现金流。
The pause in dividend growth was taken negatively by shareholders and sent BCE stock down 16% this month. The company made the right decision to prioritize debt reduction instead of straining its cash reserves to fund dividends. However, it made its dividend-reinvestment plan (DRIP) lucrative by offering to buy BCE shares at a 2% discount from the average price in 2025.
股东对股息增长的暂停持负面看法,使BCE股票本月下跌了16%。该公司做出了正确的决定,优先考虑减免债务,而不是紧张现金储备来为股息提供资金。但是,它提出在2025年以2%的平均价格折扣购买BCE股票,从而使其股息再投资计划(DRIP)获利丰厚。
Why buy this 10% dividend yield stock for the long term?
为什么要长期购买这只10%的股息收益率股票?
BCE stock is at its 13-year low, which has inflated its yield to 10.5%. On top of this, BCE DRIP is offering a 2% discount on the average stock price. Even if the 3% dividend growth has vanished for the short term, it is partially offset by higher yield, a lower stock price, and the 2% discount.
BCE股票处于13年来的最低水平,这使其收益率上涨至10.5%。最重要的是,BCE DRIP在平均股价的基础上提供2%的折扣。即使3%的股息增长在短期内消失了,但收益率的上升、股价的下降和2%的折扣也部分抵消了这一点。
A little over $5,000 investment today can buy you 133 shares of BCE. I am assuming the company maintains the same dividend for three years before returning to 3% dividend growth. However, it is a conservative estimate as BCE could accelerate its dividend growth after a pause to make up for years of no growth.
今天稍微超过5,000美元的投资可以购买133股BCE股票。我假设该公司将相同的股息维持三年,然后才恢复到3%的股息增长。但是,这是一个保守的估计,因为BCE可能会在为弥补多年的无增长而暂停股息后加速其股息增长。
Year | BCE Stock Price 3.2% CAGR* |
Annual Investment | BCE DRIP Shares | BCE Share count | BCE Dividend per share (3% CAGR) | Total dividend |
2025 | $37.66 | $5,000.00 | 132.8 | 133.0 | $3.99 | $530.67 |
2026 | $38.87 | $530.67 | 13.7 | 146.7 | $3.99 | $585.15 |
2027 | $40.11 | $585.15 | 14.6 | 161.2 | $3.99 | $643.36 |
2028 | $41.39 | $643.36 | 15.5 | 176.8 | $4.11 | $726.54 |
2029 | $42.72 | $726.54 | 17.0 | 193.8 | $4.23 | $820.33 |
2030 | $44.08 | $820.33 | 18.6 | 212.4 | $4.36 | $926.07 |
2031 | $45.49 | $926.07 | 20.4 | 232.8 | $4.49 | $1,045.27 |
2032 | $46.95 | $1,045.27 | 22.3 | 255.0 | $4.63 | $1,179.60 |
2033 | $48.45 | $1,179.60 | 24.3 | 279.4 | $4.76 | $1,330.98 |
2034 | $50.00 | $1,330.98 | 26.6 | 306.0 | $4.91 | $1,501.53 |
2035 | $51.60 | $1,501.53 | 29.1 | 335.1 | $5.05 | $1,693.65 |
年 | BCE 股价 3.2% 的复合年增长率* |
年度投资 | BCE DRIP 股票 | BCE 股票数量 | BCE 每股股息(复合年增长率 3%) | 分红总额 |
2025 | 37.66 美元 | 5,000.00 美元 | 132.8 | 133.0 | 3.99 美元 | 530.67 美元 |
2026 | 38.87 美元 | 530.67 美元 | 13.7 | 146.7 | 3.99 美元 | 585.15 美元 |
2027 | 40.11 美元 | 585.15 美元 | 14.6 | 161.2 | 3.99 美元 | 643.36 美元 |
2028 | 41.39 美元 | 643.36 美元 | 15.5 | 176.8 | 4.11 美元 | 726.54 美元 |
2029 | 42.72 美元 | 726.54 美元 | 17.0 | 193.8 | 4.23 美元 | 820.33 美元 |
2030 | 44.08 美元 | 820.33 美元 | 18.6 | 212.4 | 4.36 美元 | 926.07 美元 |
2031 | 45.49 美元 | 926.07 美元 | 20.4 | 232.8 | 4.49 美元 | $1,045.27 |
2032 | 46.95 美元 | $1,045.27 | 22.3 | 255.0 | 4.63 美元 | 1,179.60 美元 |
2033 | 48.45 美元 | 1,179.60 美元 | 24.3 | 279.4 | 4.76 美元 | 1,330.98 美元 |
2034 | 50.00 美元 | 1,330.98 美元 | 26.6 | 306.0 | 4.91 美元 | 1,501.53 美元 |
2035 | 51.60 美元 | 1,501.53 美元 | 29.1 | 335.1 | 5.05 美元 | 1,693.65 美元 |
In 11 years, the BCE DRIP could grow your annual dividend payout more than threefold to $1,693. Moreover, a recovery in BCE's fundamentals and its focus on techno could pave the way for the 5G growth trend in artificial intelligence and cloud networking.
在11年内,BCE DRIP可能会将您的年度股息支出增加三倍以上,达到1,693美元。此外,BCE基本面的复苏及其对技术的关注可能为人工智能和云网络的5G增长趋势铺平道路。
Final takeaway
最后的外卖
I am confident about BCE's recovery, given its +50 years of successful business operations and a vast 5G infrastructure and market share. You could consider buying and holding the stock for the long term.
鉴于BCE50多年的成功业务运营以及庞大的5G基础设施和市场份额,我对BCE的复苏充满信心。您可以考虑长期购买和持有该股票。