BAuto Earnings Forecast Lowered On Weaker Mazda, Kia Sales Expected
BAuto Earnings Forecast Lowered On Weaker Mazda, Kia Sales Expected
While the current forecasts exclude contribution from Deepal, initial expectations indicate an additional c.1k annual sales for BAuto.Earnings revision reflects weaker sales forecasts. The earnings revision reflects weaker-than-expected Mazda and Kia sales with Mazda reporting just 6.8k units sold (May–Oct) vs. initial FY25E assumption of 18.0k units (our revision is 12.0k units).
Maybank IB has cut the earnings forecast for Bermaz Auto by 21%/8%/6% for year 25,26 and 27 and reduce the TP by 20% to MYR2.42. Despite this, the house remained positive on BAuto's acquisition of Deepal distributorship in Malaysia, which adds a competitive EV brand to its portfolio.
Maybank Ib已经将25年、26年和27年的Bermaz Auto盈利预测下调了21%/8%/6%，并将目标价格（TP）下调了20%至MYR2.42。尽管如此，该机构仍然对BAuto在马来西亚收购Deepal经销商业务持积极态度，该收购在其产品组合中增加了一家具竞争力的电动汽车品牌。
The house is maintaining its BUY call on BAuto for its attractive valuation with a special dividend likely to be paid out from Mazda Malaysia.
该机构维持对BAuto的买入看涨建议，认为其具有吸引人的估值，并有可能从Mazda Malaysia获得特别股息。
Creating a synergy of excellence
Deepal, owned by Changan Automobile – one of China's top 4 automotive groups (ranked after BYD, Chery, and Geely), is set to enhance BAuto's portfolio. Models slated for Malaysia will include the S05 (compact SUV) and S07 (mid-size SUV), with the S05 achieving impressive sales of 21.7k units within a month of its Oct 2024 launch in China. Deepal's launches in Malaysia are anticipated by mid-2025, likely as CBUs from Changan's new TH plant.
创造卓越的协同效应
Deepal由长安汽车旗下拥有，长安汽车是中国四大汽车集团之一（仅次于比亚迪、长城和吉利），将增强BAuto的产品组合。预定在马来西亚销售的车型包括S05（紧凑型SUV）和S07（中型SUV），S05在2024年10月在中国推出一个月内就取得了2.17万辆的令人印象深刻的销售业绩。Deepal在马来西亚的推出预计将在2025年年中，可能是长安新的TH工厂的完全组装车。
While the current forecasts exclude contribution from Deepal, initial expectations indicate an additional c.1k annual sales for BAuto.Earnings revision reflects weaker sales forecasts. The earnings revision reflects weaker-than-expected Mazda and Kia sales with Mazda reporting just 6.8k units sold (May–Oct) vs. initial FY25E assumption of 18.0k units (our revision is 12.0k units).
尽管目前的预测不包括Deepal的贡献，但最初的预期表明，BAuto每年将新增约0.1万辆的销量。盈利修订反映了销售预测的疲弱。盈利修订反映了较预期更疲弱的马自达和起亚的销售表现，马自达报告的销量仅为0.68万辆（5月-10月），而最初的FY25E假设为1.8万辆（我们的修正值为1.2万辆）。
Looking ahead, Maybank believes BAuto is prioritising Kia's growth, with the Kia Sportage launch slated for Dec 2024, potentially contributing c.5k units p.a. Future launches may include the Carens MPV and Seltos SUV. Notably, XPeng recorded 119 monthly sales in Oct, following its Aug 2024 launch.
展望未来，马来亚银行认为BAuto正在优先考虑起亚的增长，计划于2024年12月推出起亚Sportage，可能每年贡献约0.5万辆的销量。未来可能推出的新车型包括Carens MPV和Seltos SUV。值得注意的是，小鹏在2024年8月推出后，10月实现了119辆的月销量。
Strong fundamental despite short term headwinds
The house remains optimistic about BAuto's solid fundamentals despite short-term industry headwinds, particularly in the crowded mass premium segment. Over the medium term, BAuto aims to replicate Mazda's success with Kia through new model launches. The addition of Deepal's distributorship, alongside XPeng's first model launch in Aug 2024, is expected to enhance
its portfolio, partially offsetting normalising Mazda sales, with no major new Mazda models anticipated until 2026.
尽管短期面临逆境，基本面强劲
该机构对BAuto的坚实基本面保持乐观，尽管短期行业面临阻力，特别是在拥挤的大众高端市场。在中期内，BAuto旨在通过推出新车型来效仿马自达与起亚的成功。Deepal的经销权的增加，以及2024年8月XPeng首款车型的推出预计将增强
其产品组合，部分弥补了马自达销量的正常化，预计直到2026年都不会有重大新的马自达车型。
