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Is Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) A Risky Investment?

Is Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) A Risky Investment?

卡骆驰(纳斯达克:CROX)是一个风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/27 05:56

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍华德·马克斯说得好,他说的不是担心股价的波动,而是 “永久损失的可能性是我担心的风险... 也是我认识的每位实际投资者所担心的风险。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。重要的是,Crocs, Inc.(纳斯达克股票代码:CROX)确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?

When Is Debt A Problem?

债务何时会成为问题?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

当企业无法通过自由现金流或以诱人的价格筹集资金来轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债就会成为风险。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。尽管这种情况并不常见,但我们经常会看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人迫使他们以不良价格筹集资金。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是同时考虑其现金和债务。

What Is Crocs's Debt?

什么是 Crocs 的债务?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Crocs had US$1.42b of debt in September 2024, down from US$1.94b, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$186.1m in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.24b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示Crocs在2024年9月的债务为14.2亿美元,低于一年前的19.4亿美元。另一方面,它拥有1.861亿美元的现金,净负债约为12.4亿美元。

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NasdaqGS:CROX Debt to Equity History November 27th 2024
NASDAQGS: Crox 债券与股本的比率历史记录 2024 年 11 月 27 日

How Healthy Is Crocs' Balance Sheet?

Crocs的资产负债表有多健康?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Crocs had liabilities of US$692.5m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.30b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$186.1m in cash and US$386.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.42b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看出,Crocs的负债为6.925亿美元,一年后到期的负债为23.0亿美元。与此相抵消的是,它有1.861亿美元的现金和3.862亿美元的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多出24.2亿美元。

This deficit isn't so bad because Crocs is worth US$6.33b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

这种赤字还不错,因为Crocs的市值为63.3亿美元,因此,如果需要,可能会筹集足够的资金来支撑其资产负债表。但是,我们绝对希望留意其债务带来过大风险的迹象。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务水平与收益的关系。第一个是净负债除以扣除利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)抵消利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。这种方法的优势在于,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净负债占息税折旧摊销前利润),也考虑了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。

Crocs has net debt of just 1.1 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 9.0 times, which is more than adequate. Fortunately, Crocs grew its EBIT by 6.6% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Crocs's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Crocs的净负债仅为息税折旧摊销前利润的1.1倍,这表明它肯定不是一个鲁莽的借款人。而且它的利息覆盖率为9.0倍,这已经足够了。幸运的是,去年Crocs的息税前利润增长了6.6%,这使得债务负担看起来更易于控制。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,未来的收益将决定Crocs未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Crocs produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 72% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

但是我们最终的考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要研究该息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在过去三年中,Crocs产生了稳健的自由现金流,相当于其息税前利润的72%,与我们的预期差不多。这种冷硬现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。

Our View

我们的观点

The good news is that Crocs's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And the good news does not stop there, as its interest cover also supports that impression! Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Crocs can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Crocs (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

好消息是,Crocs表现出的将息税前利润转换为自由现金流的能力使我们感到高兴,就像毛茸茸的小狗对待幼儿一样。好消息不止于此,因为它的兴趣封面也支持了这种印象!综合上述所有因素,令我们震惊的是,Crocs可以相当轻松地处理债务。当然,尽管这种杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但它确实带来了更多的风险,因此值得关注。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有,我们发现了 2 个 Crocs 的警告信号(其中 1 个很重要!)你应该知道。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

当一切都说完之后,有时更容易将注意力集中在甚至不需要债务的公司身上。读者现在可以免费访问净负债为零的成长型股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。华尔街只是没有持有上述任何股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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