Dollar, Treasury Yields, Stocks Fall In Tandem After October Inflation Uptick
Dollar, Treasury Yields, Stocks Fall In Tandem After October Inflation Uptick
The headline PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September, in line with forecasts. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, also ticked higher, climbing from 2.7% to 2.8% annually, meeting economist predictions.A widely expected increase in the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — commonly regarded as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — triggered fresh losses for the U.S. dollar, while Treasury yields and U.S. stocks also slid in tandem.
随着十月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的预期增长 — 通常被视为美联储首选的通货膨胀衡量标准 — 美元应声下跌，同时美国国债收益率和美国股市也一同下滑。
By 11:10 a.m. ET in New York, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), was down 0.8%, reflecting broad weakness in the greenback. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields fell by five basis points to 4.26%, and the S&P 500, replicated by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), dropped 0.4%.
纽约时间上午11点10分，由景顺Db美元指数看涨基金etf（纽交所：UUP）跟踪的美元指数（DXY）下跌0.8%，反映了绿光的广泛疲软。与此同时，10年期美国国债收益率下降了五个基点至4.26%，标普500指数，由标普500 etf信托基金（纽交所：SPY）复制，下降了0.4%。
Tech stocks were hit harder, with the Nasdaq 100 — tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) — plunging 1.3%.
科技股遭受更严重打击，纳斯达克100指数 — 由景顺QQQ信托一期（纳斯达克：QQQ）跟踪 — 暴跌了1.3%。
October PCE Inflation Matches Expectations
十月PCE通货膨胀符合预期
The headline PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September, in line with forecasts. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, also ticked higher, climbing from 2.7% to 2.8% annually, meeting economist predictions.
十月份核心PCE价格指数同比上涨2.3%，较九月份的2.1%回升，符合预测。剔除波动能源和食品价格的核心PCE通货膨胀率也略有上升，从2.7%上升至每年2.8%，符合经济学家的预测。
In a positive twist, personal spending and income data slightly beat expectations. Meanwhile, the second estimate for third-quarter U.S. GDP growth remained unchanged at a solid 2.8% annualized rate.
在一个积极的变化中，个人支出和收入数据略高于预期。与此同时，第三季度美国国内生产总值增长的第二次估计维持在坚挺的2.8%的年率不变。
Joseph Brusuelas, economist at RSM US, highlighted the strength of household finances ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. "Strong personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income underscores just how robust the economy and households remain as we approach Black Friday and year-end 2024," Brusuelas said.
RSM美国经济学家Joseph Brusuelas强调了在关键的假日购物季节来临之前家庭财务状况的强劲。Brusuelas表示："强劲的个人支出和个人收入增长0.6%强调了经济和家庭在我们逼近2024年黑色星期五和年底时保持多么强劲。"
Despite inflationary signals, Brusuelas maintains that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its Dec. 18 meeting. Market-implied probabilities echoed this sentiment, with a 70% chance of a rate cut priced into futures markets.
尽管通胀信号不断，Brusuelas认为美联储可能在12月18日的会议上降息25个基点。市场暗示的概率反映了这一观点，期货市场中对降息的70%概率已经定价。
Yen Surges On Bank of Japan Rate-Hike Bets
日币在日本银行加息预期下飙升
Yet, while U.S. economic data took center stage, Wednesday's market action appeared more influenced by carry-trade unwinding and growing speculation around a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike in December.
然而，尽管美国经济数据占据主导地位，周三的市场行动似乎更多地受到套利交易的反向进行和围绕日本银行（BOJ）12月可能加息的猜测的影响。
The Japanese yen jumped 1.2% against the dollar, extending its winning streak to three consecutive sessions.
日元对美元上涨1.2%，连续第三个交易日扩大了其涨势。
Such a strong daily move by the yen certainly strides with statistics revealing an October U.S. inflation uptick.
日元的强劲日内波动与统计数据相符，显示出美国10月通胀有所上升。
"Investors are betting on an interest-rate hike from the Bank of Japan next month," noted BBVA forex strategist Alejandro Cuadrado in a client note on Tuesday.
“投资者正在押注日本银行下个月将加息，”周二BBVA外汇策略师亚历汉德罗·夸德拉多在一份客户备忘录中指出。
The interest rate futures curve now implies a 65% probability of a BOJ rate hike in December, compared to just 30% at the start of November.
利率期货曲线现在暗示日本银行12月加息的概率为65%，而11月初仅为30%。
The yen's Wednesday outperformance has revived memories of the carry-trade turmoil from early August, when a sudden shift in yen-dollar dynamics sent shockwaves across global markets.
日元周三的表现突出唤起了人们对今年8月初套利交易动荡的回忆，当时日元兑美元的突然变化在全球市场引发了震荡。
Since that episode, the yen had depreciated by over 5% against the dollar, weighed down further by the victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
自那次事件以来，日元兑美元汇率已经贬值超过5%，并且受到特朗普概念在2024年美国总统大选中获胜的进一步拖累。
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Photo: Pixabay
照片：Pixabay
