2025 Stock Playbook: Tap Into AI's $1 Trillion Potential, US Growth Opportunities
2025 Stock Playbook: Tap Into AI's $1 Trillion Potential, US Growth Opportunities
JPMorgan estimates the broader AI ecosystem could surpass $1 trillion in spending by the end of the year. This includes costs for infrastructure, engineering talent and data center upkeep.Wall Street eyes 2025 with confidence as JPMorgan declares the U.S. will remain the global growth leader.
摩根大通宣布，美国将继续保持全球增长领导地位，华尔街对2025年充满信心。
While Europe wrestles with structural woes, the emerging markets face headwinds from high interest rates and a strong dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. is powering ahead, fueled by an AI-driven spending spree and robust capital market activity.
欧洲正为结构性问题而苦苦挣扎，新兴市场面临着利率上升和美元走强的阻力。与此同时，美国正在不断前进，受到人工智能驱动的支出狂潮和强劲的资本市场活动推动。
AI Spending: A $1 Trillion Juggernaut
人工智能支出：一项1万亿美元的巨无霸
Artificial intelligence is sparking a capital expenditure boom that dwarfs anything seen in decades. The Magnificent 7 — Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) — plan to invest over $500 billion into capex and R&D next year, roughly 25% of their combined sales.
人工智能正在引发一场资本支出热潮，其规模超过几十年来的任何事物。 科技七巨头 — 亚马逊(纳斯达克股票代码:AMZN)，微软公司(纳斯达克股票代码:MSFT)，meta platforms公司(纳斯达克股票代码:META)，英伟达公司(纳斯达克股票代码:NVDA)，alphabet inc公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOGL)(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)，特斯拉公司(纳斯达克股票代码:TSLA)和苹果公司(纳斯达克股票代码:AAPL) — 计划明年投入超过5000亿美元用于资本支出和研发，约占其合并销售额的25%。
JPMorgan estimates the broader AI ecosystem could surpass $1 trillion in spending by the end of the year. This includes costs for infrastructure, engineering talent and data center upkeep.
摩根大通估计，整个人工智能生态系统在年底前的支出可能超过1万亿美元。 这包括基础设施、工程人才和数据中心维护的成本。
While this AI frenzy promises to drive earnings growth, JPMorgan analysts warn of potential pitfalls. Capital misallocation and lofty growth expectations could draw investor skepticism by late 2025.
虽然这场人工智能热潮有望推动盈利增长，但摩根大通的分析师警告可能存在潜在的风险。资本错配和过高的增长预期可能会在2025年末引起投资者的怀疑。
Still, the long-term AI opportunity is undeniable, and JPMorgan sees key players poised to capitalize.
不过，长期的人工智能机遇是不可否认的，摩根大通认为关键参与者已准备好从中获利。
Read Also: 2025 US Economy Outlook 'Cloudier Than Normal,' JPMorgan Says: Boom, Bust Scenarios
阅读更多: 摩根大通称2025年美国经济前景“比正常更阴沉”：繁荣、萧索的情景
A Broad Earnings Recovery
广泛的盈利复苏
JPMorgan projects a bounce-back year for earnings growth in 2025. S&P 500 companies are projected to achieve an 11.4% earnings increase with all 11 sectors turning positive after 2024's uneven performance.
摩根大通预测2025年盈利增长将反弹。标普500家公司预计将实现11.4%的盈利增长，在2024年表现不一的11个板块全部转为正向。
Meanwhile, small-cap Russell 2000 firms should see rebounding with double-digit earnings growth after enduring two years of declines.
与此同时，小盘股罗素2000公司在经历了两年的下降后，应该会看到两位数的盈利增长回升。
Even the Magnificent 7 are expected to sustain a 15% growth rate.
甚至科技七巨头也有望维持15%的增长率。
JPMorgan analysts note a surprising upside could emerge if borrowing costs or the U.S. dollar ease. This should boost S&P 500 earnings by 1% for every 2% drop in the dollar.
摩根大通分析师指出，如果借贷成本或美元放缓，可能会出现意外的上行风险。每美元贬值2%，这将使标普500的盈利增加1%。
Stock Picks: Who's In JPMorgan's Cart?
股票推荐：谁在摩根大通的选股篮中？
Here are a few of the top picks per theme, from JPMorgan's 2025 outlook, which the firm has an Overweight (OW) rating on:
以下是摩根大通2025年展望中每个主题的一些热门选择，该公司对这些股票给予了超配（OW）评级：
- AI Winners: Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM), Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM).
- Deregulation Darlings: Apple, ExxonMobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Baker Hughes Co (NASDAQ:BKR), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC).
- America First Beneficiaries: Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT), General Motors Co (NYSE:GM), Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F), Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT), and more.
- 人工智能胜利者：亚马逊，微软，英伟达，Alphabet，meta，高通公司（纳斯达克：QCOM），Salesforce公司（纽交所：CRM）。
- 放宽监管宠儿：苹果，埃克森美孚公司（纽约证券交易所：XOM），贝克休斯公司（纳斯达克证券交易所：BKR），美国银行公司（纽约证券交易所：BAC）。
- 美国优先受益者：波音公司（纽约证券交易所：BA），洛克希德·马丁公司（纽约证券交易所：LMT），通用汽车公司（纽约证券交易所：GM），福特汽车公司（纽约证券交易所：F），卡特彼勒公司（纽约证券交易所：CAT），等等。
With an AI boom, a broad earnings recovery, and pro-American policies potentially reshaping the landscape, JPMorgan's 2025 vision sets a bold tone for the year ahead.
在人工智能繁荣、广泛的盈利复苏和可能重塑行业格局的亲美政策推动下，摩根大通2025年的愿景为接下来的一年定下了大胆的基调。
- JPMorgan's Volatility Play: Long VIX Calls, Short SPY Puts
- 摩根大通的波动性操作：开多VIX认购期权，开空SPY认沽期权
Photo: Sutthiphong Chandaeng via Shutterstock
照片：Sutthiphong Chandaeng通过shutterstock
