1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now
1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now
Canada's energy market is lucrative. The country has the fourth-largest global supply of proven oil reserves and the third-largest reserves of uranium. Moreover, solar and wind are some of the fastest-growing sources of energy. Canada is also the largest exporter of oil and gas to the United States. Thus, you see a variety of energy stocks on the TSX, from companies that extract oil and gas to gas utilities to gas pipeline companies that transmit to the United States, to green energy companies.
加拿大的能源市场很有吸引力。该国拥有全球第四大的已探明石油储量和第三大的铀储量。此外,太阳能和风能是增长最快的能源来源之一。加拿大也是向美国最大的石油和天然气出口国。因此,在TSX上可以看到各种各样的能源股票,从开采石油和天然气的公司到燃气公用事业公司,再到输送至美国的燃气管道公司,以及绿色能源公司。
However, not all energy stocks are a good buying option. The energy sector is capital intensive and only a few have the cost advantage to make you buy them confidently.
然而,并非所有能源股票都是一个不错的买入选择。能源领域的资本投入很大,只有少数具有成本优势,可以让您信心十足地买入它们。
A Canadian energy stock to buy
要买入的一支加拿大能源股
Energy infrastructure companies have the advantage of earning toll money for transmitting oil and gas between countries and provinces. However, they carry a significant risk of cost overruns as it is increasingly difficult to build pipelines due to environmental concerns and approvals.
能源基础设施公司具有赚取输送油气收费的优势,但它们承担着重大的成本超支风险,因为由于环保和获批方面的担忧,建设管道变得日益困难。
TC Energy stock
TC Energy 股票
TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has an advantage. Its Coastal GasLink pipeline is the first direct pipeline that opens Canada's liquified natural gas (LNG) to the world. North American LNG exports to Europe and Asia are a huge market to tap. However, the Coastal GasLink pipeline went into significant cost overruns from the initial estimate of $6.6 billion to the actual cost of $14.5 billion. TC Energy wrote off billions in losses that pulled its stock price down in 2022 and 2023.
tc energy(TSX: TRP)拥有优势。其Coastal GasLink管道是第一条直接将加拿大的液化天然气(LNG)开放给世界的管道。北美液化天然气出口到欧洲和亚洲是一个巨大的市场可以开发。然而,Coastal GasLink管道的造价从最初的66亿美元显著超支到实际成本达到145亿美元。tc energy因损失数十亿而转为赤字,导致其股价在2022年和2023年下跌。
Now is the time to reap the benefits of this natural gas pipeline. To extract more efficiencies and value, the company also spun off its oil pipeline business and named it South Bow. TC Energy's share price has picked up since July as interest rate cuts began and the spin-off materialized in October. The outlook is bright for TC Energy as US president-elect Donald Trump favours oil and gas energy resources. Faster approval of projects could be on the cards, which could help TC Energy accelerate the execution of high-value projects and tap LNG exports.
现在正是收获这条天然气管道的好时机。为了提高效益和价值,该公司还将其石油管道业务剥离并命名为South Bow。随着利率下调的开始和在十月份实现剥离,tc energy的股价自7月以来有所反弹。特朗普等待上任的美国总统看好石油和天然气能源资源。项目更快获批可能是有可能的,这可能有助于tc energy加快高价值项目的执行并开发液化天然气出口。
Debt is a risk for TC Energy, but the company expects to bring the debt to its upper target limit of 4.8 times its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the long term. It expects to grow its dividends by 3-5% for the coming three years and by 5% later as it taps the LNG export market.
债务对tc energy构成风险,但公司预计长期将债务带到其EBITDA的上限,即4.8倍。该公司预计未来三年将将股息增长3-5%,后期将增长5%,因为其进军液化天然气出口市场。
A Canadian energy stock to avoid
一个要避开的加拿大能源股
While TC Energy is focusing on high-value projects, Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX:AQN) is offloading assets. It has sold its renewable energy business for $2.5 billion to focus on regulated energy services that have stable cash flows. The restructuring and efforts to lower the debt are ongoing.
尽管tc energy专注于高价值项目,阿尔贡金电力与公用事业(tsx:AQN)正在出售资产。该公司已将可再生能源业务售出25亿美元,专注于稳定现金流的受监管能源服务。重组和降低债务的努力正在进行。
The company is still trying to survive and has yet to show any signs of growth. In the third quarter, AQN even reduced its dividend per share by 40%, after slashing them by 40% in 2023. Two sharp dividend cuts in two years, a $7.5 billion debt, and a $5.1 billion market capitalization show that debt is still a concern.
该公司仍在努力生存,尚未显示任何增长迹象。在第三季度,阿尔贡金电力与公用事业甚至将每股股息削减40%,在2023年将其削减40%。两年内两次大幅削减股息,75亿美元的债务以及51亿美元的市值显示债务仍然是一个问题。
Algonquin Power & Utilities stock has lost over 60% of its value in the past two years. And the fall is for the weak fundamentals. Even a 5.4% yield does not make it look attractive, as this dividend is at risk. Moreover, Trump could cut subsidies for renewable energy, making them less attractive.
阿尔贡金电力与公用事业的股票在过去两年中已经贬值超过60%。下跌源于基本面疲软。即使每股股息为5.4%,也不算吸引人,因为这种股息面临风险。此外,特朗普可能会削减对可再生能源的补贴,使其变得不太吸引人。
Final takeaway
最终总结
A sector may be attractive, but not all stocks in the industry are attractive. Whenever you are bullish on a sector, make sure to also read about the companies that are well-placed to tap that growth.
一个板块可能具有吸引力,但行业内并非所有股票都吸引人。每当您看好某个行业时,确保也了解那些能够充分利用增长的公司。