Crypto Analyst Flags Convertible Debt-Induced Liquidation Risk To Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy
Crypto Analyst Flags Convertible Debt-Induced Liquidation Risk To Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy
Woo argued that this scenario would occur if MicroStrategy's stock didn't increase by roughly 40% within the next 5-7 years.Influential cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo shared his perspective on the potential liquidation risk of MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR), a firm whose aggressive Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) acquisition strategy has sparked significant interest lately.
有影响力的数字货币分析师Willy Woo分享了他对MicroStrategy公司（纳斯达克：MSTR）潜在清算风险的看法，这家公司的激进比特币（数字货币：BTC）收购策略最近引起了广泛关注。
What Happened: On Wednesday, Woo took to X to state that the primary risk lies in the company's convertible debt offerings.
发生了什么：周三，Woo在X上表示，主要风险在于公司的可转换债务发行。
He said that if the buyers of the convertible debt do not convert to shares before maturity, MicroStrategy would be forced to sell Bitcoin to repay the debt holders.
他表示，如果可转换债务的买家在到期前不转换为股票，MicroStrategy将被迫卖出比特币以偿还债务持有者。
Woo argued that this scenario would occur if MicroStrategy's stock didn't increase by roughly 40% within the next 5-7 years.
Woo认为，如果MicroStrategy的股票在未来5-7年内没有大约40%的增长，就会出现这种情况。
Thoughts on MSTR Liquidation Risk:
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 27, 2024
The only liquidation risk I can see is via their convertible debt offerings:
1) If convertible debt buyers do not convert to shares before maturity, it forces MSTR to sell BTC to reimburse debt holders.
2) This would happen if MSTR doesn't... pic.twitter.com/GFIOeAqQPL
关于MSTR清算风险的看法：
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) 2024年11月27日
我能看到的唯一清算风险是通过他们的可转换债务发行：
1）如果可转换债务的买家在到期前不转换为股票，这将迫使MSTR卖出BTC来偿还债务持有者。
2）如果MSTR不... pic.twitter.com/GFIOeAqQPL
The analyst also underlined several other risks of varying degrees.
分析师还强调了其他几种不同程度的风险。
He argued that other corporations replicating MicroStrategy's playbook could result in reducing its net asset value (NAV) premium—the ratio of the firm's market value to its Bitcoin holdings value.
他认为，其他公司复制microstrategy的策略可能会导致其净资产价值(NAV)溢价降低——公司市场价值与其比特币持有价值的比率。
Furthermore, risks such as the SEC acting to limit future Bitcoin purchases and the U.S. government nationalizing and confiscating the asset were raised.
此外，还提出了SEC采取措施限制未来比特币购买以及美国政府国有化和没收资产等风险。
Why It Matters: For the curious, a convertible note is a hybrid instrument that can be exchanged for equity in the company at a later date. The conversion feature of these notes eventually helps the debt holders to participate in the equity upside on conversion.
为什么这很重要：对好奇的人来说，可转换票据是一种混合工具，可以在以后转换为公司的股权。这些票据的转换特性最终帮助债权人在转换时参与股权的上涨。
The Michael Saylor-led firm has been issuing these bonds at 0% interest, using the proceeds to fund its future Bitcoin purchases.
由迈克尔·塞勒领导的公司一直以0%的利率发行这些债券，并利用这些收益资助其未来的比特币购买。
Woo's comments followed renowned investment adviser Gary Black's aspersions on the valuation of MicroStrategy.
Woo的评论紧随著著名投资顾问Gary Black对microstrategy估值的质疑。
Black estimated that MicroStrategy's shares should be worth about $105/share, a figure 73% lower than its current trading price.
Black估计microstrategy的股票价值应在105美元/股左右，低于其当前交易价格的73%。
Price Action: Over the past month, MicroStrategy's stock has surged 58.94%, outperforming even the famed "Magnificent 7" group of companies. The stock popped 9.94% to $388.84 during Wednesday's regular session.
价格走势：在过去一个月里，microstrategy的股票暴涨58.94%，甚至超过了著名的“科技七巨头”企业群。周三常规交易中，股价上涨9.94%至388.84美元。
Image via Shutterstock
图片来源：shutterstock
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