Optimism for Marten Transport (NASDAQ:MRTN) Has Grown This Past Week, Despite Five-year Decline in Earnings
Optimism for Marten Transport (NASDAQ:MRTN) Has Grown This Past Week, Despite Five-year Decline in Earnings
The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 25% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 7.7% in the last year.
长期投资的主要目的是赚钱。此外,您通常希望看到股票价格上涨快于市场。然而,马尔登运输有限公司(纳斯达克:MRTN)在这一目标上未能达成,五年来股票价格上涨了25%,低于市场回报。更详细来看,过去一年该股票实际上下跌了7.7%。
Since it's been a strong week for Marten Transport shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.
由于这一周对马尔登运输的股东来说表现强劲,我们来看看长期基本面的趋势。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
市场有时毫无疑问是有效的,但股票价格并不总是反映基本业务表现。一种有缺陷但合理的方法是比较每股收益(EPS)和股票价格,以评估围绕公司的情绪如何变化。
During five years of share price growth, Marten Transport actually saw its EPS drop 11% per year.
在五年的股票价格增长中,马尔登运输的每股收益实际上每年下降了11%。
Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. Given that EPS is down, but the share price is up, it seems clear the market is focussed on other aspects of the business, at the moment.
由于每股收益大幅下降,市场参与者极不可能通过每股收益来估值公司。鉴于每股收益下降,但股价上涨,目前市场似乎专注于业务的其他方面。
We doubt the modest 1.4% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, Marten Transport's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 7.3% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
我们怀疑仅有1.4%的分红派息收益率能吸引很多买入者。另一方面,马尔登运输的营业收入增长良好,过去五年的复合增长率达到7.3%。在这种情况下,公司可能正在牺牲当前的每股收益来推动增长。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下面的图表显示了收益和营收随时间的变化情况(通过单击图像揭示确切的值)。
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Marten Transport will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
值得注意的是,我们看到在上一季度有显著的内部买入,这被我们视为积极信号。也就是说,我们认为每股收益和营业收入增长趋势是更重要的考虑因素。因此,查看分析师们对马尔登运输未来的收益预测(免费利润预测)是非常有意义的。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Marten Transport, it has a TSR of 40% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR考虑了任何分拆或折价资本募集的价值,以及根据假设将分红派息再投资的任何分红派息。可以公平地说,TSR为那些支付分红派息的股票提供了更完整的图景。在马尔登运输的情况下,过去5年的TSR为40%。这超出了我们之前提到的股价回报。公司支付的分红派息因此提升了总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
While the broader market gained around 34% in the last year, Marten Transport shareholders lost 6.5% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 7%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Marten Transport you should know about.
在过去一年中,整体市场上涨了大约34%,但马尔登运输的股东却亏损了6.5%(即便包括分红派息)。 即使良好股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在对一项业务产生浓厚兴趣之前,看到其基本指标的改善。 长期投资者不会感到如此失望,因为他们在五年内每年都获得了7%的回报。如果基本数据持续表明长期可持续增长,目前的卖出潮可能是一个值得考虑的机会。 虽然考虑市场状况对股价的不同影响非常重要,但还有其他因素更加重要。 比如考虑风险。每家公司都有风险,而我们发现了 2 个马尔登运输的警告信号,你应该了解。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
如果您喜欢与管理层共同购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个免费的公司列表(提示:大多数公司没有受到关注)。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
请注意,本文所引述的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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