Is Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) A Risky Investment?
Is Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies The Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录对此毫不隐瞒,他表示'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。'当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的债务使用情况,因为债务超载可能导致灭亡。与许多其他公司一样,信诺(纽交所:CI)使用债务。但股东们是否应该担心它的债务使用呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
当企业无法轻松履行债务或以有吸引力的价格筹集资本时,债务和其他负债对企业构成风险。在最糟糕的情况下,如果企业无法偿还债务,就会破产。虽然这不太常见,但我们经常看到负债企业因债权人迫使它们以低价筹集资本而永久稀释股东权益。当然,许多公司使用债务来进行增长,而没有任何负面后果。当我们考虑一家公司的债务风险时,我们首先看现金和债务总额。
What Is Cigna Group's Debt?
信诺集团的债务是什么?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Cigna Group had debt of US$33.8b, up from US$31.0b in one year. However, it also had US$6.75b in cash, and so its net debt is US$27.1b.
以下图片显示,在2024年9月,信诺集团的债务为338亿美元,比一年前的310亿美元增加。然而,它也拥有67.5亿美元的现金,因此其净债务为271亿美元。
How Strong Is Cigna Group's Balance Sheet?
信诺集团的资产负债表有多坚实?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Cigna Group had liabilities of US$57.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$58.3b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$6.75b and US$27.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$80.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根据最近披露的资产负债表,信诺集团有571亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,583亿美元的负债超过12个月到期。另一方面,它有67.5亿美元的现金和278亿美元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额为807亿美元,超过了其现金和短期应收账款的总和。
This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$93.2b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Cigna Group's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
相对于其市值达932亿美元,这个赤字在相当于其非常显著的市值之下,这确实表明股东应该密切关注信诺集团的债务使用情况。如果其债权人要求其加强资产负债表,股东很可能面临严重稀释。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
我们使用两个主要的比率来告诉我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA),而第二个是其利润前利息和税(EBIT)覆盖其利息费用的次数(或其利息覆盖率,简称)。因此,我们考虑与折旧和摊销费用相关的盈利以及没有相关费用的盈利相对于债务水平。
Cigna Group's debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.6 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Unfortunately, Cigna Group's EBIT flopped 18% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Cigna Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
信诺集团的债务是其EBITDA的3.2倍,其EBIT可覆盖利息支出的倍数为4.6倍。这表明尽管债务水平显著,但我们停在称其有问题之前。不幸的是,信诺集团的EBIT在过去四个季度下跌了18%。如果利润继续以这个速度下降,那么处理债务将会比带着三个5万亿以下的孩子去一家高级餐厅困难得多。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上学到了很多关于债务的情况。但更重要的是,未来的盈利将决定信诺集团保持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您想了解专业人士的看法,您可能会发现分析师盈利预测的这份免费报告非常有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Cigna Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但债权人只接受冰冷的现金。因此,值得检查EBIT中多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去三年中,信诺集团实际上产生的自由现金流比EBIT更多。这种强劲的现金转化让我们像在Daft Punk音乐会上舞曲响起时的人群一样兴奋。
Our View
我们的观点
Cigna Group's EBIT growth rate and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. We should also note that Healthcare industry companies like Cigna Group commonly do use debt without problems. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Cigna Group is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Cigna Group (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
信诺集团的EBIt增长率和总负债水平确实使其负重在我们看来。但其将EBIt转化为自由现金流的能力却讲述了一个完全不同的故事,并表明其具有一定的韧性。我们还应该注意,像信诺集团这样的医疗保健行业公司通常会在没有问题的情况下使用债务。当我们考虑所有讨论的因素时,我们认为信诺集团正在通过其债务使用承担一些风险。虽然这种债务可以提高回报,但我们认为公司现在的杠杆已足够高。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的关于债务的大部分信息。但最终,每家公司都可能承担存在于资产负债表以外的风险。我们已经找到了信诺集团的3个警示信号(至少其中一个可能很严重),了解它们应该成为你的投资过程的一部分。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
当一切尘埃落定时,有时更容易专注于那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以立即免费查看零净债务的成长股列表。
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