Wall Street's December Surprise: What Investors Need to Know Now
Wall Street's December Surprise: What Investors Need to Know Now
Something to be thankful for?Major U.S. indices have advanced between 18% to 27% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index scaled its 52nd record high this year on Tuesday, Nov. 26. Bulls and Bears are locking horns as S&P 500 is on track to deliver 20% plus year-to-date gains for the second time.
美国主要指数今年迄今已上涨了18%至27%。标准普尔500指数在本年度周二11月26日迎来了第52次创纪录的新高。随着标准普尔500指数有望第二次实现年初至今增长超过20%，多空双方正在激烈对抗。
What Happened: Markets have been under pressure only once in the month of December over the last 95 years, according to the data highlighted by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group LLC.
突发事件：根据卡森集团市场首席策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）提供的数据，过去95年中，12月份市场只有一次承压情况。
Thanksgiving falls on the fourth Thursday of November every year, addressing the next month of December, Detrick shared the data and said "Something to be thankful for?", in an X (formerly Twitter). The data from 1928 to 2023 showed that September has been the worst 13 times while April is the worst month this year with a 4% drop.
感恩节每年都在11月的第四个星期四举行，而下一个月即12月，德特里克在X（原Twitter）上分享数据并表示“值得感恩的事情？”。从1928年到2023年的数据显示，9月份13次居首位，而今年最差的月份是4%的下跌的4月。
Something to be thankful for?
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 28, 2024
December has been the worst month of the year for stocks only once going back 95 years (2018 and the Fed policy mistake).
Worst month this year has been the 4% drop in April. pic.twitter.com/2ThL3DwD7x
值得感恩的事情？
—瑞安·德特里克，CMt（@RyanDetrick）2024年11月28日
过去95年中，12月份只有一次成为股票最差的月份（2018年和联储政策失误）。
今年最糟糕的一个月是4%的下跌在4月份。pic.twitter.com/2ThL3DwD7x
Also read: GOP Megadonor Ken Griffin Slashes Citadel's Palantir Stake By 91%, Bets Big On Nvidia As Jensen Huang-Led Company Rises Over 180% In 2024
另请查阅：共和党大佬肯·格里芬将Citadel的palantir持股削减91%，而在英伟达上大举押注，因黄仲甫领导的公司在2024年上涨超过180%。
On the other hand, David Cox, CMT, CFA, portfolio manager at Raymond James Ltd., in an X Post highlighted the likelihood of an upcoming to the investors, saying "If you want to sidestep a decline, watch the trend..."
另一方面，雷蒙德詹姆斯有限公司的投资组合经理David Cox，CMt，CFA，在一篇X发帖中强调了将来可能会出现的机会，称"如果您想避开下跌，请关注趋势..."
The 13/34-week Exponential Moving Average signals a bullish market trend when the 13-week EMA line is above the 34-week EMA line and a bullish crossover results in a market correction. Predicting an upcoming crossover through his chart Cox said that "there will be another red circle some day", The red circle in his chart represents a bullish crossover.
13/34周指数移动平均线信号表明，当13周EMA线位于34周EMA线上方时，市场趋势看好，而看多交叉会导致市场修正。通过他的图表预测即将发生的交叉，Cox称"总有一天会出现另一个红圈"，他图表中的红圈代表看多交叉。
According to a note by CMGWealth, the 13/34-week EMA analysis is a "simple, tactical trend indicator that has historically captured the cyclical bull and bear market trends."
根据CMGWealth的说明，13/34周EMA分析是一个"简单的战术趋势指标，历史上捕捉了周期性的牛市和熊市趋势。"
again, look at how much easier we can make it on ourselves... time frame matters, if you want to sidestep a decline, watch the trend... look at these 13/34-week EMA #bearish crossovers... they help you remove emotion, and stay focused... there will be another red circle some day pic.twitter.com/kpAXx8F5jX
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) November 27, 2024
再次，看看我们可以让自己更轻松... 时间框架是重要的，如果您想避免下跌，请关注趋势...研究这些13/34周EMA看空交叉...它们有助于消除情绪，保持专注...总有一天会再次出现红圈。
— David Cox，CMt，CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) 2024年11月27日
Why It Matters: Markets have been trading higher than their pre-election levels and the expectations of a further 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to just 66.3%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. This indicates a further upside in the stock markets.
重要性在于：市场已经比选举前的水平高出，并且根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，人们对于12月进一步降息25个基点的期望仅升至66.3％，这表明股市还有进一步上涨的空间。
The S&P 500 index has risen 26.48% year-to-date to basis. Whereas, the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 200 Index have returned 25.39%, 18.58%, and 20.54%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up by 26.7% and the Invesco QQQ ETF (NYSE:QQQ) advanced by 23.39%, according to Benzinga Pro data.
标普500指数截至目前已上涨26.48％。而纳斯达克100、道琼斯和罗素200指数分别回报了25.39％、18.58％和20.54％。根据彭博专业数据，标普500ETF信托基金（NYSE:SPY）上涨了26.7％，景顺QQQ ETF（NYSE:QQQ）上涨了23.39％。
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