Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) has maintained a HOLD call on Capital A Bhd, with a target price of RM1, based on its sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation. This follows a weaker-than-expected performance in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), with a marginal core net loss despite a substantial forex gain that boosted the headline profit.
The research house has reduced its earnings estimate for FY24 by 71% to RM93.5 million from RM318.2 million but maintains its projections for FY25 and FY26, as it expects the airline to return its full fleet to service by 1Q25. At present, approximately 85% of Capital A's fleet is active, an improvement from 77% at the end of 3Q24. Maybank IB has reiterated that the return of the full fleet is not a matter of "if" but rather "when".
Capital A's 3Q24 headline profit was reported at RM1.64 billion, largely driven by an RM2.27 billion foreign exchange gain from its US dollar leases and borrowings. However, excluding these one-off items, the group recorded a core net loss of RM59.3 million, a 41% decline year-on-year (YoY) and a 19% decrease quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
This resulted in a 9M24 core net loss of RM65.7 million, a significant miss compared to Maybank IB's expectation of a core net profit of around RM100 million for both 3Q24 and 9M24. The shortfall was primarily due to a lower number of passengers carried, with only 46.9 million passengers carried in the first nine months, accounting for just 71% of the full-year target. Additionally, only 77% of Capital A's fleet was operational during the quarter, falling short of Maybank IB's expectations.
Looking ahead, Maybank IB expects a sequential improvement in 4Q24 results, driven by an expected 88% load factor, a slight increase in average fare to RM235 and a stable ancillary revenue per passenger of over RM50. Additionally, with spot jet fuel prices easing to US$87 per barrel in 4Q24 from US$92 per barrel in 3Q24, the research house anticipates further positive momentum.
At the same time, Capital A hopes to complete the sale of five of its airlines to AirAsia X by 1Q25 and aims to lift its Practice Note 17 classification in the first half of 2025.
马来亚银行投资银行有限公司（Maybank IB）维持对Capital A Bhd的持仓看涨期权，根据其部分总和（SOP）估值，目标价为1令吉。在此之前，2024年第三季度（24年第三季度）的表现低于预期，尽管外汇大幅上涨提振了总体利润，但核心净亏损仍有边际。
该研究机构已将24财年的收益预期从31820万令吉下调了71％至9350万令吉，但维持了对25财年和26财年的预测，因为它预计该航空公司将在25年第一季度恢复其全部机队的服务。目前，Capital A的机队中约有85％处于活跃状态，较24年第三季度末的77％有所改善。Maybank Ib重申，全部舰队的返回不是 “是否” 的问题，而是 “何时” 的问题。
Capital A公布的24年第三季度总体利润为16.4令吉，这主要是由其美元租赁和借款带来的22.7令吉的外汇收益所推动的。但是，不包括这些一次性项目，该集团的核心净亏损为5930万令吉，同比下降41％，同比（QoQ）下降19％。
这导致9M24核心净亏损为6570万令吉，与马来亚银行预期的24年第三季度和24年第9季度核心净利润约为10000万令吉相比，这是一个重大亏损。短缺的主要原因是载客量减少，前九个月仅运送了4690万名乘客，仅占全年目标的71％。此外，Capital A的机队在本季度中只有77％投入运营，未达到马来亚银行IB的预期。
展望未来，Maybank Ib预计，在预期的88％的载客系数、RM235 的平均票价略有上涨以及每位乘客的稳定辅助收入超过50令吉的推动下，24年第四季度的业绩将持续改善。此外，随着现货喷气燃料价格从24年第三季度的每桶92美元下跌至24年第四季度的每桶87美元，该研究机构预计将出现进一步的积极势头。
同时，Capital A希望在25年第一季度之前完成向亚航长程出售其五家航空公司的交易，并计划在2025年上半年取消其第17号实践说明的分类。
