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We Think Belden (NYSE:BDC) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Belden (NYSE:BDC) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我们认为百通公司(纽交所:BDC)在债务方面存在一定风险
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/02 20:43

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Belden Inc. (NYSE:BDC) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

由伯克希尔-哈撒韦的查理·芒格背书的外部基金经理李录在说到'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是是否会遭受永久性的资本损失'时毫不掩饰。当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过载可能导致崩溃。与许多其他公司一样,百通公司(纽交所:BDC)使用债务。但这种债务是否会让股东担忧呢?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时有危险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务对于企业来说是有帮助的,直到企业因新资本或自由现金流还清债务为止。资本主义的一个方面是“创造性破坏”过程,银行家们无情地清算失败的企业。虽然这不太常见,但我们经常看到负债公司因放贷人强制它们以苦涩的价格筹集资本而永久稀释股东。虽然债务可以取代股权稀释,但对于需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业来说,债务可以是一种非常有用的工具。当我们考虑公司使用债务的情况时,首先看现金和债务的总体情况。

What Is Belden's Net Debt?

百通公司的净债务是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Belden had US$1.22b of debt, an increase on US$1.15b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$323.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$896.0m.

您可以点击以下图表查看历史数据,但截至2024年9月,百通公司债务达到12.2亿美元,与一年前的11.5亿美元相比有所增加。然而,由于其现金储备达到32300万美元,其净债务较少,约为89600万美元。

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NYSE:BDC Debt to Equity History December 2nd 2024
纽交所:BDC债务与股本历史数据 2024年12月2日

How Healthy Is Belden's Balance Sheet?

百通公司的资产负债表状况如何?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Belden had liabilities of US$579.3m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.53b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$323.0m and US$430.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.35b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

从最近的资产负债表中我们可以看到,百通公司有短期到期的负债为57930万元美元,而长期到期的负债为15.3亿美元。另一方面,公司有32300万元美元的现金和43020万元美元的应收账款在短期内到期。因此,公司的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款合计高出13.5亿美元。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Belden has a market capitalization of US$4.94b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

尽管这听起来很多,但由于百通公司的市值为49.4亿美元,所以如果需要的话,通过增加资本可能加强其资产负债表。但很明显,我们肯定需要仔细审查其是否能在没有稀释的情况下管理其债务。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

为了衡量公司相对于其收益的债务情况,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆盖率)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量(净负债与 EBITDA),又考虑到了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。

With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5, Belden uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 7.4 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. Shareholders should be aware that Belden's EBIT was down 24% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Belden's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

百通公司的债务与EBITDA比率为2.5,说明公司在使用债务方面很有技巧并且负责任。此外,过去十二个月的EBIT是其利息支出的7.4倍,这与上述主题相一致。股东应注意,百通公司的EBIT去年下降了24%。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,那么偿还债务将会像把猫赶上过山车一样困难。资产负债表显然是在分析债务时要重点关注的领域。但更重要的是,未来的盈利将决定百通公司是否能够持续维持健康的资产负债表。所以,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份展示分析师盈利预测的免费报告。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Belden recorded free cash flow worth 65% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,一家企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润是远远不够的。因此,逻辑的下一步是查看EBIT中实际自由现金流所占比例。在过去的三年中,百通公司的自由现金流占其EBIT的65%,这在正常范围之内,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税款。这份自由现金流使得公司有能力在适当时期偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Belden's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is relatively strong. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Belden is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Belden that you should be aware of.

百通公司增长EBIt的努力让我们开始怀疑其资产负债表的实力,但我们考虑的其他数据点相对振兴。例如,其将EBIt转换为自由现金流的能力相对较强。综合考虑上述所有角度,我们认为百通公司由于其债务而变成了一项相对风险的投资。 这并不一定是坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的事情。毫无疑问,我们最能从资产负债表中了解债务情况。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。例如,我们已经发现了百通公司的2个警示信号,您应该注意。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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