Despite Delivering Investors Losses of 31% Over the Past 5 Years, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings (SZSE:300226) Has Been Growing Its Earnings
Despite Delivering Investors Losses of 31% Over the Past 5 Years, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings (SZSE:300226) Has Been Growing Its Earnings
It is a pleasure to report that the Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300226) is up 66% in the last quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 32%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
很高兴地报告,上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司(SZSE:300226)在过去一个季度上涨了66%。但是如果你回顾过去五年,收益并不好。实际上,股价下跌了32%,远低于通过购买指数基金所能获得的收益。
On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥420m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
更令人鼓舞的是, 公司在过去7天内市场市值增加了42000万元人民币,因此让我们看看是否能判断出导致股东在过去五年亏损的原因。
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话:短期内市场是一个投票机,但长期来看它是一个称重机。评估公司周边环境的情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 4.0% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
在股价下滑的可怕五年间,上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司的每股收益(EPS)实际上以每年4.0%的速度改善。考虑到股价的反应,大家可能会怀疑在此期间EPS是否是业务表现的良好指标(也许是由于一次性的亏损或收益)。或者,过去的增长预期可能是不切实际的。
Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
根据这些数字,我们认为市场在半个十年前可能过于乐观地预测了增长。尽管如此,通过查看其他指标,我们可能会更好地了解该股的情况。
We don't think that the 0.3% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. It could be that the revenue decline of 3.1% per year is viewed as evidence that Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings is shrinking. That could explain the weak share price.
我们认为0.3%并不是影响股价的重要因素,因为它相对较小,作为分红派息而言。这可能表明,每年的营业收入减少3.1%被视为上海钢联正在萎缩的证据。这或许可以解释股价疲软。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
以下图片显示了收益和营收随时间的变化(如果你点击图片,可以看到更详细的信息)。
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
你可以在这个免费的互动图表中看到它的资产负债表如何随着时间的推移而加强(或削弱)。
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings shareholders are down 9.7% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 7.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
上海钢联的股东今年下跌了9.7%(甚至包括分红派息),但市场本身上涨了7.8%。然而,请记住,即使是最好的股票在十二个月期间也有可能表现不佳。不幸的是,去年的表现可能表明未解决的问题,因为其表现比过去五年里年化损失的6%还要糟糕。我们意识到巴伦·罗斯柴尔德曾说过,投资者应该在街头有"鲜血"的时候"买入",但我们提醒投资者首先要确保他们购买的是高质量的业务。我发现长期观察股价作为业务表现的代理非常有趣。但要真正获得洞见,我们还需要考虑其他信息。举个例子,投资风险的无处不在的幽灵。我们已识别出与上海钢联相关的两个警告信号,理解这些信号应该是你投资过程的一部分。
But note: Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
但请注意:上海钢联可能不是最佳的买入股票。所以看看这个免费列表,其中包含了过去盈利增长(以及进一步增长预测)的有趣公司。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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