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EXCLUSIVE: Why Bitcoin Cannot Crack $100,000 Just Yet

EXCLUSIVE: Why Bitcoin Cannot Crack $100,000 Just Yet

独家:比特币为什么暂时无法突破10万美元
Benzinga ·  12/03 20:18

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) struggle to cross the $100,000 mark is due to profit-taking, derivatives data and historical trends, analysts tell Benzinga.

分析师告诉本辛加,比特币(加密货币:BTC)难以突破10万美元大关是由于获利回吐、衍生品数据和历史趋势。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $94,870, down 0.4% for the day, according to data from CoinGecko.

根据CoinGecko的数据,比特币目前的交易价格为94,870美元,当天下跌0.4%。

Avinash Shekhar, co-founder and CEO of Pi42, told Benzinga that Bitcoin's pullback reflects a consolidation phase rather than weakness.

Pi42的联合创始人兼首席执行官阿维纳什·谢哈尔告诉本辛加,比特币的回调反映的是巩固阶段,而不是疲软。

He highlighted the robust demand in derivatives markets, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged BTC positions.

他强调了衍生品市场的强劲需求,交易者为杠杆BTC头寸支付了17%的年化溢价。

"The Bitcoin options markets also show confidence, as options are trading at an 8% discount, indicating reduced hedging demand," Shekhar said.

谢哈尔说:“比特币期权市场也表现出信心,因为期权的交易折扣为8%,这表明对冲需求减少。”

He added that funding rates for perpetual contracts remain neutral at 1.4%, supporting a balanced leverage environment.

他补充说,永续合约的融资利率保持中性,为1.4%,为平衡的杠杆环境提供了支持。

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James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, attributes Bitcoin's dip to profit-taking following its $25,000 surge in the past month.

Unity Wallet首席运营官詹姆斯·托莱达诺将比特币在过去一个月飙升25,000美元之后的下跌归因于获利回吐。

He noted that the presence of put options between $98,000 and $99,000 has created resistance levels.

他指出,98,000美元至99,000美元之间的看跌期权的存在创造了阻力位。

"Profit-taking has likely exerted downward pressure on the price," Toledano told Benzinga, cautioning that Bitcoin's historical patterns show significant corrections after rapid ascents.

托莱达诺告诉本辛加:“获利回吐可能对价格施加了下行压力,” 他警告说,比特币的历史模式在快速上涨后显示出重大修正。

He cited previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin's steep gains were followed by sharp declines of up to 70%.

他列举了之前的周期,例如2017年和2021年,比特币的急剧上涨之后是高达70%的急剧下跌。

Arthur Azizov, CEO of B2BINPAY, observed that Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range of $91,000 to $99,000, with the $100,000 mark acting as a psychological barrier.

B2BINPAY 首席执行官亚瑟·阿齐佐夫观察到,比特币的交易价格一直处于91,000美元至99,000美元的窄幅区间内,10万美元大关构成了心理障碍。

Speaking with Benzinga, Azizov predicted a potential pullback to $82,000 but noted that interest in the market remains strong, driven by altcoin season and substantial inflows from institutional and retail investors.

阿齐佐夫在接受本辛加采访时预测可能会回调至82,000美元,但他指出,在山寨币季节以及机构和散户投资者大量流入的推动下,市场兴趣仍然强劲。

According to CoinMarketCap's Alt season Index, the market is in alt season territory, with a score of 83.

根据CoinMarketCap的替代季指数,该市场处于替代季节区域,得分为83分。

Technical analysts at Fairlead Strategies maintain a neutral short-term outlook for Bitcoin, citing indicators such as the daily MACD and DeMARK signals that point to consolidation.

Fairlead Strategies的技术分析师维持比特币的中立短期前景,理由是每日MACD和DeMark信号等指标指向盘整。

They identified $80,400 as the initial support level and $100,000 as key resistance. Long-term momentum, however, remains strong, supporting a bullish outlook beyond the current consolidation phase.

他们确定80,400美元为初始支撑位,10万美元为关键阻力位。但是,长期势头仍然强劲,支撑了当前整合阶段之后的看涨前景。

"All signs hint at Bitcoin being in its consolidation phase rather than a weakness phase," Shekhar further said.

谢哈尔进一步表示:“所有迹象都表明比特币处于整合阶段,而不是疲软阶段。”

Toledano echoed this sentiment, cautioning that while corrections are common after rapid gains, they don't necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin's bull run.

托莱达诺也表达了这一观点,并警告说,尽管修正在快速上涨之后很常见,但不一定预示着比特币牛市的结束。

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Image: Pixabay

图片:Pixabay

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