Edvantage Group Holdings Limited (HKG:382) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥2.3b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.63 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Edvantage Group Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Edvantage Group Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.60b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 7.7% to CN¥0.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.65 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target fell 13% to HK$4.35, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the annual results. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Edvantage Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$6.09 and the most bearish at HK$3.09 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Edvantage Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 14% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Edvantage Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Edvantage Group Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Edvantage Group Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Edvantage Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Edvantage Group Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.