Is MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) A Risky Investment?
Is MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
传奇基金经理李录(查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是您是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。” 当您评估风险时,考虑一家公司的资产负债表是很自然的,因为债务往往会导致企业破产。 我们注意到MercadoLibre, Inc.(纳斯达克:MELI)的资产负债表上确实有债务。 但更重要的问题是:这笔债务带来了多少风险?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
一般来说,当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过增加资本还是通过自身现金流。资本主义的一个必要部分是“创造性毁灭”过程,失败的企业将被银行无情清算。然而,更频繁(但仍然昂贵)发生的情况是一家公司必须以极低价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股权,以维持其资产负债表。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司合理管理债务,从而使其受益。考虑一家公司的债务水平时的第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is MercadoLibre's Net Debt?
MercadoLibre的净债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 MercadoLibre had US$5.27b of debt, an increase on US$4.40b, over one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$6.67b in cash, so it actually has US$1.41b net cash.
您可以点击下面的图表查看历史数据,但它显示截至2024年9月,MercadoLibre的债务为52.7亿美元,较一年前的44亿美元增加。 然而,其资产负债表显示它持有66.7亿美元的现金,因此实际上净现金为14.1亿美元。
A Look At MercadoLibre's Liabilities
分析mercadolibre的负债情况
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that MercadoLibre had liabilities of US$14.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.31b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$6.67b as well as receivables valued at US$9.05b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.90b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
我们可以从最近的资产负债表看到,MercadoLibre有143亿美元的应付债务,其中有43.1亿美元将在一年内到期,43.1亿美元到期超过了这个期限。 抵消这些义务,它有66.7亿美元的现金以及价值90.5亿美元的应收款项将在12个月内到期。 因此,其负债总额比现金和短期应收款项的组合高出29亿美元。
Given MercadoLibre has a humongous market capitalization of US$97.8b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, MercadoLibre boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
考虑到MercadoLibre市值达978亿美元,很难相信这些负债会构成很大威胁。 但有足够的负债,我们肯定建议股东继续监控资产负债表。 尽管其负债可观,MercadoLibre拥有净现金,因此可以说其没有沉重的债务负担!
But the other side of the story is that MercadoLibre saw its EBIT decline by 4.9% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if MercadoLibre can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
但事情的另一面是,MercadoLibre在过去一年中EBIt下降了4.9%。 如果收益继续以这个速度下降,公司可能会在管理其债务负担方面遇到越来越大的困难。 当您分析债务时,资产负债表明显是要关注的区域。 但最终业务未来的盈利能力将决定MercadoLibre是否能够随着时间加强其资产负债表。 因此,如果您想了解专业人士的看法,您可能会发现这份有关分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While MercadoLibre has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, MercadoLibre actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最后,公司只能用现金而不是会计利润偿还债务。 尽管MercadoLibre在资产负债表上有净现金,但还是值得看看它将息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其构建(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度。 在过去三年中,MercadoLibre实际上产生的自由现金流比EBIt还多。 这种强劲的现金转化让我们和大众一样激动,就像在Daft Punk音乐会上节奏降下时那样。
Summing Up
总之
While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that MercadoLibre has US$1.41b in net cash. And it impressed us with free cash flow of US$6.2b, being 239% of its EBIT. So is MercadoLibre's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in MercadoLibre, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
虽然查看公司的总负债始终是明智之举,但令人欣慰的是,mercadolibre拥有14.1亿美元的净现金。而其自由现金流为62亿美元,占其EBIt的239%。那么,mercadoLibre的债务是否存在风险?在我们看来似乎并非如此。随着时间的推移,股价往往会跟随每股收益走势,因此如果您对mercadolibre感兴趣,可能希望点击这里查看其每股收益历史的交互图表。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。
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