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Is Mobvista Inc. (HKG:1860) Trading At A 48% Discount?

Is Mobvista Inc. (HKG:1860) Trading At A 48% Discount?

汇量科技(HKG:1860)是否以48%的折扣交易?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/06 07:34

Key Insights

主要见解

  • Mobvista's estimated fair value is HK$16.00 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of HK$8.31 suggests Mobvista is potentially 48% undervalued
  • Mobvista's peers seem to be trading at a lower discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 35%
  • 汇量科技的估计公允价值为港币16.00元,基于两阶段自由现金流到权益的分析。
  • 当前股价为港币8.31元,暗示汇量科技可能低估了48%。
  • 根据行业平均35%的折扣,汇量科技的同行似乎以较低的折扣交易于公允价值。

How far off is Mobvista Inc. (HKG:1860) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

汇量科技(HKG:1860)与其内在价值相差多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将检视股票是否定价合理,通过预计未来现金流并将其折现到今天的价值。我们的分析将使用折现现金流(DCF)模型。像这样的模型可能超出一般人的理解,但其实相对容易掌握。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

请记住,有很多种方法可以估算公司的价值,而DCF只是其中的一种方法。对于那些热衷于股票分析的学习者,Simply Wall St分析模型可能会引起您的兴趣。

The Model

模型

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用所谓的2阶段模型,这意味着我们有两个不同的公司现金流增长期间。一般第一阶段是高增长,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年业务的现金流。由于我们没有可用于自由现金流的任何分析师估计值,因此我们必须推断出自公司上次报告的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司将看到其增长速度在此期间放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期的增长趋于减缓而不是后期的增长趋势。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

普遍认为今天的一美元比将来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要贴现这些未来的现金流总和来得出现值估计:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由现金流(FCF)预测

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$104.3m US$111.1m US$117.0m US$122.1m US$126.7m US$130.9m US$134.9m US$138.7m US$142.5m US$146.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 8.29% Est @ 6.51% Est @ 5.26% Est @ 4.38% Est @ 3.77% Est @ 3.34% Est @ 3.04% Est @ 2.83% Est @ 2.68% Est @ 2.58%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.1% US$98.3 US$98.7 US$97.9 US$96.3 US$94.2 US$91.7 US$89.1 US$86.3 US$83.5 US$80.7
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) 104.3百万美元。 1.111亿美元 117.0百万美元 122.1百万美元 126.7百万美元 1.309亿美元 1.349亿美元 美元138.7百万 1亿4250万美元 1.461亿美元
增长率估计来源 估值:8.29% 预计增长率为6.51%时 预计增长率为5.26%时 预计为4.38% 以3.77%为估计值 估计值为3.34% Est @ 3.04% 以2.83%的估算增长率为基础 估计 @ 2.68% 预计为2.58%
按6.1%折现的现值 ($, 百万) 98.3美元 98.7美元 97.9美元 96.3美元 94.2美元 91.7美元 89.1美元 美金86.3 83.5美元 80.7美元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$917m

("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF) = 9.17亿美元

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%.

第二阶段也称为终值,这是业务在第一阶段之后的现金流。使用戈登增长公式计算未来年增长率,其等于10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值2.3%。我们以6.1%的股本成本将终端现金流折现为今天的价值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$146m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.1%– 2.3%) = US$4.0b

终值 (TV)= 自由现金流2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 146百万美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.1%– 2.3%) = 40亿美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$4.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)10= US$2.2b

终值现值 (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 40亿美元÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)10= 22亿美元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$3.1b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$8.3, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

总价值是未来十年的现金流之和,加上折现后的终值,从而得出总股权价值,在这种情况下是31亿美金。在最后一步中,我们将股权价值除以流通股数量。与当前股票价格8.3港元相比,该公司看起来相对被低估,股票价格现在折价48%。 但是请记住,这只是一个近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样 - 垃圾进,垃圾出。

big
SEHK:1860 Discounted Cash Flow December 5th 2024
香港联合交易所:1860 折现现金流 2024年12月5日

The Assumptions

假设

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mobvista as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.916. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

现在,折现现金流最重要的输入是折现率,当然还有实际的现金流。您无需同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新进行计算并调整这些数据。DCF也没有考虑到行业的周期性或公司的未来资本需求,因此它不能充分展示公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们正在将汇量科技视为潜在股东,使用股本成本作为折现率,而不是资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC),WACC考虑了债务。在此计算中,我们使用了6.1%,这是基于0.916的杠杆β。Beta是衡量股票波动性与整体市场比较的一个指标。我们的Beta来自全球可比公司的行业平均Beta,限制在0.8和2.0之间,这对于稳定的业务来说是一个合理的区间。

Moving On:

接下来:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Mobvista, there are three relevant factors you should consider:

虽然重要,但DCF计算只是评估公司时需要考虑的众多因素之一。DCF模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,最好的使用方式是测试某些假设和理论,以确定它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的增长率增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,输出结果可能会有很大差异。为什么内在价值高于当前的分享价格?对于汇量科技,有三个相关因素需要考虑:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Mobvista (1 is potentially serious!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 1860's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 风险:在考虑投资该公司的时候,您应该注意我们发现的关于汇量科技的两个警告信号(一个潜在严重!)
  2. 未来收益:1860的增长率与其同行和更广泛市场相比如何?通过与我们的自由分析师增长预期图表互动,深入挖掘未来几年的分析师共识数字。
  3. 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS:Simply Wall St 每天更新每只香港股票的 DCF 计算,所以如果您想寻找其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章是一般性质的。我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,使用公正的方法,我们的文章并非意在提供财务建议。这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,并且不考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您带来基于基础数据驱动的长期聚焦分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St对提及的任何股票都没有持仓。

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