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Is Dawning Information Industry (SHSE:603019) A Risky Investment?

Is Dawning Information Industry (SHSE:603019) A Risky Investment?

中科曙光(SHSE:603019)是一个风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  12/10 17:58

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Dawning Information Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603019) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

有些人认为,波动性,而非债务,才是投资者思考风险的最好方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾著名地说过“波动性远不是风险的同义词”。在评估一家公司有多危险时,考虑公司的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当企业崩溃时,债务往往是相关的。我们可以看到中科曙光有限公司(SHSE:603019)确实在其业务中使用了债务。但股东应该为其使用债务感到担忧吗?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时会变得危险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般来说,债务只有在公司无法轻易偿还时才成为真正的问题,要么通过筹集资本,要么通过自身的现金流。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所获。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债公司因贷款人迫使他们以低价筹集资本而永久稀释股东。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表了廉价资本,尤其是当它替代了能够以高回报率再投资的公司的稀释时。考虑一家企业使用多少债务时,首先要看它的现金和债务的组合。

What Is Dawning Information Industry's Debt?

中科曙光的债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Dawning Information Industry had debt of CN¥1.52b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from CN¥2.87b over a year. However, it does have CN¥3.43b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥1.90b.

下面的图像,您可以点击获取更详尽的信息,显示中科曙光截至2024年9月底的债务为人民币15.2亿,比一年前的人民币28.7亿有所减少。然而,它有人民币34.3亿的现金来抵消这些债务,导致净现金为人民币19亿。

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SHSE:603019 Debt to Equity History December 10th 2024
SHSE:603019 债务与股本历史 2024年12月10日

How Healthy Is Dawning Information Industry's Balance Sheet?

中科曙光的资产负债表健康吗?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Dawning Information Industry had liabilities of CN¥4.38b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥8.21b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.43b as well as receivables valued at CN¥3.48b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥5.68b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

仔细看一下最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到中科曙光在12个月内有430亿元人民币的负债,以及在那之后有82.1亿元人民币的负债。抵消这些义务后,它有34.3亿元人民币的现金,和34.8亿元人民币的应收账款,后者在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多56.8亿元人民币。

Since publicly traded Dawning Information Industry shares are worth a very impressive total of CN¥109.7b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Dawning Information Industry also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

由于中科曙光的公开交易股份总价值达1097亿元人民币,因此这种负债水平似乎不太可能构成重大威胁。但存在足够的负债,我们当然会建议股东继续监控资产负债表。虽然它有值得注意的负债,但中科曙光的现金超过债务,所以我们相当有信心它可以安全地管理债务。

On the other hand, Dawning Information Industry's EBIT dived 11%, over the last year. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Dawning Information Industry's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

另一方面,中科曙光的息税前利润(EBIT)在过去一年下降了11%。如果这种盈利下降的趋势持续下去,公司可能会面临困境。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表无疑是一个明显的起点。但未来的收益,超过一切,将决定中科曙光未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费报告,展示分析师的盈利预测。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Dawning Information Industry may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Dawning Information Industry saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最后,一家公司只能用现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。中科曙光在资产负债表上可能有净现金,但查看该业务将其息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力仍然很有趣,因为这将影响其债务管理的需求及能力。在过去三年中,中科曙光的自由现金流总体上看大幅为负。尽管投资者无疑希望这种情况在将来会逆转,但这显然意味着其债务使用风险更大。

Summing Up

总结

While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Dawning Information Industry has CN¥1.90b in net cash. So although we see some areas for improvement, we're not too worried about Dawning Information Industry's balance sheet. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Dawning Information Industry you should know about.

虽然查看公司的总负债总是明智的,但中科曙光拥有19亿人民币的净现金,这让人感到非常安心。因此,尽管我们看到了一些需要改进的地方,但我们对中科曙光的资产负债表并不太担心。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有这些风险,我们已经发现了中科曙光的1个警示信号,你应该了解。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来发现我们独家的净现金成长股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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