We Think Yunnan Aluminium (SZSE:000807) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease
We Think Yunnan Aluminium (SZSE:000807) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000807) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
传奇基金经理李露(查理·芒格支持他)曾说过:‘最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。’因此,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,考虑债务可能是显而易见的,因为过多的债务可能会使公司陷入困境。我们可以看到,云铝股份有限公司(深证:000807)在其业务中使用债务。但是,真正的问题是,这种债务是否使公司风险加剧。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时会变得危险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
当一个企业无法轻易满足其义务时,债务和其他负债就会变得有风险,无论是通过自由现金流还是通过以有吸引力的价格筹集资金。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法支付其债权人,它可能会破产。然而,更常见(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东,仅仅是为了控制债务。尽管如此,最常见的情况是,公司合理管理债务,并且使其受益。当我们检查债务水平时,首先考虑现金和债务水平的结合。
What Is Yunnan Aluminium's Debt?
云铝股份的债务情况如何?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Yunnan Aluminium had debt of CN¥3.71b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from CN¥4.47b over a year. However, it does have CN¥8.20b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥4.49b.
下面的图像可点击以查看更详细的信息,显示截至2024年9月底,云铝的债务为37.1亿人民币,比一年前的44.7亿人民币减少。然而,它有82亿人民币现金抵消这些债务,导致净现金为44.9亿人民币。
How Strong Is Yunnan Aluminium's Balance Sheet?
云南铝业的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Yunnan Aluminium had liabilities of CN¥8.06b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.51b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥8.20b and CN¥966.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.41b.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,云南铝业的负债为80.6亿人民币,需在一年内偿还,且后续的负债为25.1亿人民币。另一方面,它拥有82亿人民币的现金和96690万人民币的应收款需在一年内偿还。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收款的总和14.1亿人民币。
Given Yunnan Aluminium has a market capitalization of CN¥48.8b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Yunnan Aluminium also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
考虑到云南铝业的市值为488亿人民币,很难相信这些负债会造成太大威胁。尽管如此,显然我们应该继续关注其资产负债表,以免情况变坏。虽然它有需要关注的负债,但云南铝业的现金比债务还多,因此我们相当有信心它能够安全管理其债务。
On top of that, Yunnan Aluminium grew its EBIT by 55% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Yunnan Aluminium can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
此外,云南铝业在过去的十二个月中,其EBIT增长了55%,这一增长将使其更容易处理债务。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个明显的起点。但最终,业务未来的盈利能力将决定云南铝业是否能够随着时间的推移增强其资产负债表。所以,如果你想知道专业人士的看法,你可能会对这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告感兴趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Yunnan Aluminium has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Yunnan Aluminium generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 96% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
但我们的最后一个考虑因素同样重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷静的现金。虽然云南铝业的资产负债表上有净现金,但仍值得关注其将息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解它建立(或削减)现金余额的速度。在过去三年中,云南铝业生成的自由现金流占其EBIT的96%,这一数字相当强劲,超过我们的预期。这使其处于一个非常强劲的偿还债务的地位。
Summing Up
总结
While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Yunnan Aluminium has CN¥4.49b in net cash. The cherry on top was that in converted 96% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥6.3b. So is Yunnan Aluminium's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Yunnan Aluminium that you should be aware of before investing here.
虽然查看公司的总负债始终是明智的,但云铝股份拥有44.9亿人民币的净现金,这让人感到非常安心。锦上添花的是,它将96%的EBIT转化为自由现金流,带来了63亿人民币。那么,云铝股份的债务是个风险吗?在我们看来似乎不是。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个好的起点。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。例如,我们发现云铝股份有一个警告信号,在您投资之前应该注意。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?对内容有疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。