Private Home Prices Expected to Rise 0-3% in 2025
Private Home Prices Expected to Rise 0-3% in 2025
Developers are trading at a 58% discount to RNAV and 0.52x FY24F P/BV, between -1 and -2 standard deviations of their 10-year average, with those more exposed to the residential segment poised to benefit from a recovery in home sales.Around 8,200-8,300 units may launch in 1H25, with sales recovering to 6,000-7,000 units in 2025.
预计在2025年上半年将推出约8,200-8,300个单位，销售将恢复到6,000-7,000个单位。
Private home prices are seen to rise modestly by 0-3% in 2025, supported by a wave of new launches.
预计2025年私人住宅价格会小幅上涨0-3%，受到一波新发布的支持。
In a report, CGS International (CGSI) noted developers estimate 8,200-8,300 residential units could hit the market in 1H25, with new private home sales volumes forecasted to recover to 6,000-7,000 units in 2025.
在一份报告中，中国银河国际（CGSI）指出，开发商估计2025年上半年可能会有8,200-8,300个住宅单位上市，新的私人住宅销售量预计将恢复到6,000-7,000个单位。
Developers are trading at a 58% discount to RNAV and 0.52x FY24F P/BV, between -1 and -2 standard deviations of their 10-year average, with those more exposed to the residential segment poised to benefit from a recovery in home sales.
开发商的交易价格比RNAV低58%，且FY24F的P/BV为0.52倍，处于10年平均值的-1到-2个标准差之间，那些更依赖住宅板块的开发商将从住宅销售的恢复中受益。
Despite seeing value in developers at these levels, CGSI cautioned that a tempered rate cut outlook could limit significant share price outperformance in the near term.
尽管在这些水平上看到了开发商的价值，但CGSI警告称，温和的降息前景可能会限制近期内显著的分享价格表现。
Meanwhile, it said the lower interest rate environment in Singapore could boost residential property buying interest.
与此同时，它表示，新加坡的低利率环境可能会提升住宅物业的购买兴趣。
CGSI retained its neutral stance on the sector, naming CapitaLand Investment (CLI) as its top pick, followed by UOL. Among small caps, CGSI favored property broker PROP.
CGSI对该板块保持中立立场，首推凯德投资（CLI），其次是华业集团。在小型股中，CGSI偏好房地产经纪PROP。
