Duolingo Trades At Peak Valuation, Analyst Downgrades It
Duolingo Trades At Peak Valuation, Analyst Downgrades It
Duolingo Inc (NASDAQ:DUOL) stock fell after B of A Securities analyst Curtis Nagle downgraded the rating from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $375, up from $355.
Duolingo公司（纳斯达克：DUOL）的股票在BofA证券分析师Curtis Nagle将评级从买入下调至中立，并将目标价上调至375美元（之前为355美元）后下跌。
The downgrade reflects less upside potential as the stock traded at peak valuation, and near-term estimate revisions may be lower than in prior quarters.
此次下调反映了由于股票处于高峰估值，未来上涨潜力较小，并且短期的估计修正可能低于前几个季度。
Nagle continued to see Duolingo as one of the highest-quality and most consistent growth names within the Internet and noted the potential for 40% EBITDA margins (versus 26% now) and over 20% GAAP net income margins (versus 13% now) over the long term.
Nagle继续认为Duolingo是互联网领域中质量最高和增长最稳定的公司之一，并指出长期内有40%的EBITDA利润率（目前为26%）和超过20%的GAAP净利润率（目前为13%）的潜力。
Also Read: STMicroelectronics and Qualcomm Launch New IoT Module to Simplify Wireless Connectivity
另请参阅：意法半导体和高通推出新的物联网模块以简化无线连接。
Duolingo's ability to grow users virally (marketing is only 11% of sales versus 15% for sub-peers), nearly double subscribers as a percent of users, scale international markets, and expand high ARPU tiers such as Duolingo Max are all compelling long-term growth opportunities.
Duolingo通过病毒式营销（市场营销仅占销售额的11%，而订阅用户数的同业为15%），几乎将订阅用户数占用户数的比例翻倍，拓展国际市场，以及扩展高ARPU等级，如Duolingo Max，都是具有吸引力的长期增长机会。
Duolingo has a strong track record of beating estimates and raising guidance, which has supported an increase in valuation over the past several years (DUOL's EV/sales multiple increased post-earnings in 9 of the past 11 quarters).
Duolingo在超出预期和上调指引方面的表现优异，这支持了最近几年估值的提升（DUOL的企业价值/销售倍数在过去11个季度中有9个季度在财报公布后上升）。
However, the magnitude of beats and raises has narrowed in recent quarters, and valuation is now at peak levels, which, all else equal, sets a much stricter bar going into the fourth-quarter earnings print.
然而，近几个季度超出预期和上调指引的幅度有所缩小，估值目前处于高峰水平，这在其他条件相同的情况下，为第四季度财报设定了更严格的门槛。
Nagle expects revenues and EBITDA above current Street estimates, but a miss on DAUs or only a modest beat on revenues could negatively impact shares. Both the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2024 marked lower-than-average beats, and shares rose post-print, but Nagle noted that in the first quarter of 2024, Duolingo reported its most minor beat on DAU and revenue and shares fell nearly 20%.
Nagle预计营业收入和EBITDA将高于当前市场的估计，但用户数（DAUs）未达预期或仅小幅超出营业收入可能会对股票产生负面影响。2024年第二季度和第三季度的超出预期幅度均低于平均水平，股票在财报发布后上涨，但Nagle指出在2024年第一季度，Duolingo报告的DAU和营业收入的超出预期幅度是最小的，股票下跌近20%。
The price target is based on 14 times 2026 EV/Sales, a premium to high-growth subscription service comps, which trade at 9 times. Nagle noted that the premium is justified given significantly higher projected revenue growth and higher gross and EBITDA margins.
该目标价格基于2026年14倍的企业价值/销售比，这一溢价高于交易于9倍的高速增长订阅服务可比公司。Nagle指出，考虑到预期的营业收入增长显著更高以及更高的毛利率和 EBITDA 率，这一溢价是合理的。
Nagle expects fourth-quarter revenue of $206 million and EPS of $0.46.
Nagle预期第四季度营业收入为20600万，每股收益为0.46美元。
Price Action: DUOL stock is down 7.36% at $335.18 at last check Wednesday.
价格动态：DUOL股票在最新检查时下跌了7.36%，价格为335.18美元。
Also Read:
另请阅读：
- Photronics Q4 Earnings: Beats Expectations, CEO Credits Strong US Sales, 2025 Backed By AI, Edge Computing, And Supply Chain Trends
- 福尼克斯第四季度收益：超出预期，首席执行官归功于强劲的美国销售，2025年依靠人工智能、边缘计算和供应链趋势。
Photo via Shutterstock
照片来源于Shutterstock
