Middlesex Water Faces Valuation Pressure: Analyst Flags Slowing Growth And Rising Regulatory Risks
Middlesex Water Faces Valuation Pressure: Analyst Flags Slowing Growth And Rising Regulatory Risks
The analyst acknowledges Middlesex Water's recent growth but does not see any catalyst for further share price appreciation, even with more aggressive capital expenditure assumptions.BofA Securities analyst Ross Fowler initiated coverage on Middlesex Water Company (NASDAQ:MSEX) with an Underperform rating and a price forecast of $56.
美银证券分析师罗斯·福勒对米德尔赛克斯水务公司（纳斯达克：MSEX）进行了覆盖评级，给予其不推荐评级，目标价格为56美元。
Fowler notes that Middlesex Water is the most expensive utility in their coverage, trading at a 47% premium to the utility group and a 13% premium to the water group.
福勒指出，米德尔赛克斯水务是其覆盖范围内最昂贵的公用事业公司，交易价格比公用事业组高出47%，比水务组高出13%。
Despite strong past growth, the analyst projects rate base and EPS growth to slow below the peer average, which, combined with increasing regulatory risk and uncertainty around capital spending, makes the current valuation unjustified.
尽管过去增长强劲，但分析师预计其资产基数和每股收益增长将低于同行平均水平，加上监管风险增加和资本支出不确定性，使得当前估值不合理。
The analyst acknowledges Middlesex Water's recent growth but does not see any catalyst for further share price appreciation, even with more aggressive capital expenditure assumptions.
分析师承认米德尔赛克斯水务近期的增长，但即使是在更激进的资本支出假设下，也没有看到进一步股价上涨的催化剂。
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Fowler forecasts Middlesex Water's EPS to grow at a 5.2% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, with estimates of $2.34 in 2024, $2.45 in 2025, $2.59 in 2026, and $2.72 in 2027.
福勒预计米德尔赛克斯水务的每股收益将在2024年至2027年间以5.2%的复合年增长率增长，预计2024年为2.34美元，2025年为2.45美元，2026年为2.59美元，2027年为2.72美元。
The analyst forecasts capital expenditures to exceed guidance, driven by the national push for water quality investment, resulting in a 7.6% annual rate base growth through 2027.
分析师预计资本支出将超过指导原则，受到全国对水质投资的推送驱动，预计到2027年，年资产基数增长率将达到7.6%。
However, this is slower than the recent 15% rate base growth driven by one-time water quality investments.
然而，这一增长速度低于近期因一次性水质投资驱动的15%的资产基数增长。
Per the analyst, the focus on limiting water customer bill increases will restrict further upside for Middlesex Water, especially as the company relies more on frequent rate cases.
根据分析师的说法，限制水用户账单增加的重点将限制米德尔赛克斯水务公司的进一步上升，特别是该公司越来越依赖频繁的费率案例。
Additionally, Middlesex Water may need to raise external equity starting in 2025, forecasting $25 million per year to bring its equity capitalization closer to authorized levels.
此外，米德尔赛克斯水务公司可能需要从2025年开始增加外部股本，预计每年需要2500万美元，以使其股本资本化接近授权水平。
The analyst notes that Middlesex Water expects 4% customer growth in 2024, but acknowledges that economic conditions could make achieving that growth challenging.
分析师指出，米德尔赛克斯水务公司预计2024年客户增长为4%，但承认经济状况可能会使实现这一增长变得具有挑战性。
The analyst assumes 4% growth for 2024, but adjusts it to 3% in their model.
分析师假设2024年增长为4%，但在其模型中将其调整为3%。
The analyst also points out that if growth slows down, it could negatively impact revenue and capital expenditure estimates.
分析师还指出，如果增长放缓，可能会对营业收入和资本支出预估产生负面影响。
Price Action: MSEX shares are trading lower by 1.66% to $60.31 at last check Wednesday.
价格动态：截至周三最后一次检查，MSEX股票下跌1.66%，报60.31美元。
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图片来源：Shutterstock。