An expert said SREITs will likely have a better year.
2025 is set to be a better year for Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts (SREITs), with the market anticipating three rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
If this plays out and interest rates in Singapore remain unchanged, SREITs should benefit from reduced borrowing costs.
CGS International said those with a greater proportion of floating-rate debt will benefit most as their interest payments decrease.
With lower funding costs and positive rental rates, SREITs are likely to resume a 2-3% growth in distribution per unit (DPU) in 2025, according to CGS International.
Sectors which have reported positive rental rates were industrial and retail.
GS International reported that rental reversions in Singapore were positive across S-REITs in 9M24.
In 2025, the expert anticipates high occupancies and the ongoing lease renewal cycle to help S-REITs achieve low single-digit rental reversions and manage cost challenges.
CGS International's top picks in the sector are Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT).
"We continue to like FCT's resilient portfolio of suburban malls. LREIT is a potential re-rating play if its asset recycling strategy is successfully executed," the expert said.
"Sector risks include weakening consumer sentiment that could lead to a slowdown in consumer spending, which could further dampen tenant sentiment and reversions," it added.
Industrial SREITs echoed the positive rental reversion trend, with continued high-single or low-double-digit positive reversions in the warehouse, hi-tech, and light industrial sectors in Singapore, although business park rents showed moderation quarter-on-quarter.
In 2025, CGS International projects rents will increase by 0%-3%, a more moderate growth than the full-year expectation for 2024. The expert attributes this to supply dynamics.
The industrial sector will experience a surge in new supply, with 1,648,000 sqm of space expected to come onstream, the highest since 2022. The majority of this new space will be in the warehouse (39%), single-user factory (29%), and multi-user factory (18%) segments.
The office sector is another area likely to be influenced by supply dynamics. CGS International said a slowdown in new supply will help support its rental outlook.
The expert expects rents in the office sector to increase by 0%-3% next year.
Meanwhile, the hospitality sector will also see some easing, particularly in revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth, falling between 0%-3%.
CGS International attributed the expected moderation to Singapore's international visitor arrivals being likely to stay at 16 million to 17 million next year, with the average length of stay remaining flat year-on-year.
The expert, however, said that the Q1 2025 YoY RevPAR performance could be influenced by the high base effect from Q1 2024, driven by numerous major concerts and events.
CGS International's top picks for the sector are CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS), CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT), and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT),
"Among these, CLAS and CDREIT both have more diversified footprints to navigate the moderating momentum in the Singapore hotel market," CGS International said.
对于新加坡上市的房地产投资信托基金（SREIT）来说，2025年将是更好的一年，市场预计美联储将三次降息。
如果这种情况持续下去并且新加坡的利率保持不变，那么SREIT应该受益于借贷成本的降低。
CGS International表示，随着利息支付的减少，那些拥有更大浮动利率债务比例的人将受益最大。
根据CGS International的数据，随着融资成本的降低和正的租金率，SREITs可能会在2025年恢复单位分配（DPU）2-3％的增长。
报告租金率为正的行业是工业和零售业。
GS International报告称，新加坡房地产投资信托基金在24年9个月的租金回升为正数。
该专家预计，到2025年，高入住率和持续的租约续订周期将帮助S-REITs实现较低的个位数租金回报率并应对成本挑战。
CGS International在该行业的首选是弗雷泽Centrepoint Trust（FCT）和Lendlease全球商业房地产投资信托基金（LREIT）。
“我们仍然喜欢FCT富有弹性的郊区购物中心投资组合。如果LREIT的资产回收战略得以成功执行，则有可能成为重新评级的公司，” 该专家说。
它补充说：“行业风险包括消费者信心减弱，这可能导致消费者支出放缓，这可能会进一步抑制租户情绪和回归。”
工业房地产投资信托基金呼应了积极的租金回升趋势，新加坡仓库、高科技和轻工业领域的租金持续出现高个位数或低两位数的正回调，尽管商业园租金环比有所放缓。
到2025年，CGS国际项目的租金将增长0％-3％，比2024年全年预期的增长更为温和。专家将其归因于供应动态。
工业领域的新供应将激增，预计将有1,648,000平方米的空间投入使用，为2022年以来的最高水平。这些新空间的大部分将位于仓库（39％）、单用户工厂（29％）和多用户工厂（18％）细分市场。
办公部门是另一个可能受到供应动态影响的领域。CGS国际表示，新供应放缓将有助于支撑其租金前景。
该专家预计，明年办公行业的租金将增长0％-3％。
同时，酒店业也将有所缓解，尤其是每间可用客房收入（RevPAR）的增长，下降0％-3％之间。
CGS International将预期的放缓归因于明年新加坡的国际游客入境人数可能保持在1600万至1700万，平均停留时间同比持平。
但是，该专家表示，2025年第一季度RevPAR的同比表现可能会受到2024年第一季度高基数效应的影响，该效应是由众多大型音乐会和活动推动的。
CGS International在该行业的首选是凯德置地雅诗阁信托（CLAS）、CDL酒店信托基金（CDREIT）和远东酒店信托基金（FEHT），
CGS International表示：“其中，CLAS和CDreit的足迹都更加多元化，可以驾驭新加坡酒店市场的放缓势头。”
